Madagascar, Statistics Problem Example

Madagascar has experienced a steady growth in population throughout the twentieth century. The colonial authorities had first taken a systematic census at the turn of the twentieth century. Let us assume that the population of Madagascar in the year of 2008 is 19, 110941. And the populations of 2009, 2010 and 2011 are approximately; 19397605, 19688569 and 19983897 etc.

So we have that 19397605 = 19110941 * (1.015) ^1

Similarly we get 19688569 = 19110941 * (1.015) ^2

19983897 = 19110941 * (1.015) ^3

So from here we get that the growth rate of population is 1.5 %( = 0.015) and the total population will be increased by (1+0.015) = 1.015

And the relation of this rate with the population is –

P = 19110941 *(1.015) ^t where “t” denotes the number 0f years after 2008.

So from this relation we may predict that for the year 2015 t = 7

Then the population will be approximately

P = [19110941 * (1.015) ^7]

=   21210180

A government administrator will be benefited from this prediction analysis. Since he will be aware of the predicted population of a certain year, it will be easy on his part to arrange systematic evaluation of a more authenticated census. A politician may be also benefited because if he knows about the approximate population he can create his infrastructure, arrange jobs, roads and most important get an idea about his vote bank. If the population increase is predicted then the government and the economy can prepare their system in accordance to the rise. This will help them to meet the future challenges more effectively, and they will be in a much better position to stabilize the economy. The reliable data on population issues leads to sustainable development.

References

Country Studies, nd, retrieved from http://countrystudies.us/madagascar/10.htm

UNFPA, nd, retrieved from http://www.unfpa.org/worldwide/africa.html