2012 Election Prediction, Essay Example

2012 Election: Red vs. Blue

According to my prediction, President Barack Obama will be reelected by winning 295 electorates as opposed to Mitt Romney’s 243 electorates which nevertheless indicates my expectation of a close race. In making my predictions, I mostly looked at undecided states and hypothesized that states with higher average education levels are more likely vote for President Obama and vice versa. I also looked at the neighboring states of the undecided states and predicted that undecided states with mostly democratic neighboring states may vote for President Obama while those with conservative neighbors will go for Mitt Romney. I also looked for extraordinary factors that could favor a particular candidate such as Michigan going to President Obama because of his successful bailout of the auto industry. A news story in Bloomberg does confirm that President Obama holds a slight lead over Mitt Romney in Michigan (Frederick). A Gallup swing-state survey does reveal that President Obama has a lead in swing states over Mitt Romney just as I have predicted (Saad).

Source: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=zkE

Bibliography

Frederick, Don. With Michigan in Play, Auto Bailout to Get Obama Spotlight. 31 August 2012. 16 September 2012 <http://go.bloomberg.com/political-capital/2012-08-31/with-michigan-in-play-auto-bailout-to-get-obama-spotlight/>.

Saad, Lydia. Obama-Romney Race Competitive in 2012 Swing States. 27 May 2012. 16 September 2012 <http://www.gallup.com/poll/154502/obama-romney-race-competitive-2012-swing-states.aspx>.