A Cold War With China, Essay Example

Introduction

For decades after the World War II our world was threatened by the confrontation of two extreme superpowers – the capitalist world led by the US and communist block headed by the Soviet Union. In the beginning of 1990s, however, the USSR collapsed, bringing the bipolar system to an end. For years after the collapse of the communist threat it seemed that the USA now has exclusive power in the world. Its efficient economy and military budget larger than the combined budgets of all the other countries in the world ensured complete political and military dominance over the entire planet. However, it seems that a new super power, able to compete wit the US is rising fast: People’s Republic of China.

China’s rapidly growing economy is one of the main subjects of economic discussions. This country’s annual GDP growth is unbelievable high and it reached from 10 to 11.9 percent from 2003 through 2007. In the next 5 – 10 years China plans to keep the GDP growth high despite the economic crisis. Analysts predict that the GDP growth will drop to 8.5 percent because of the shortages in export. Above that the perspectives of further prosperity in the next 10 years still stay high. China plans to increase investments toward ecologic and natural problems, as well as the living conditions of their rural population (Michael Lelyveld, 2008). Even considering the relative slowdown in the development of this state, the growth rates remain high compared to the Western world (USA, EU, Canada, Australia, etc.). China is using a relatively small percentage of its GDP for the military purposes. However, considering the significant increase in the overall size of China’s economy, this descent share of the overall spending by the government has grown to become the second largest military budget in the world.

There is a number of factors, which may play a destabilizing role in the US-China relations. Lack of democracy in the People’s Republic is a matter of concern for the US officials. Chinese government’s cruel and unreasonable actions in Tibet are also a major problem. And, of course, the long-lasting conflict between China and Taiwan is an important issue. The factors stated above may actually turn out to be just the top of the iceberg in the complex set of problems that China and the US will have to solve in the nearest future.

Massive population of the People’s Republic of China and extensive economy growth implies strong pressure on the limited natural resources. US volumes of consumption also require great amounts of fuel and mineral resources. Even taken separately from one another, the needs of the two superpowers are unlikely to be satisfied under the sustainable development doctrine. Amounts of raw materials needed by both super-giants simply can not be satisfied. As a result, the interests of the two countries will frequently overlaps, creating more and more problems. It seems that the one-polar model in the world is not going to last. The second, opposing superpower has already risen and will keep the pace for the years to come. Eventually, we might find the world in the Cold War II, with the continuing weapon race and multiple local conflicts, only this time China and US will be the rivals.

US-China competition for oil

It is absolutely obvious that the economy of 21^st century is extremely dependant on fuel. Transportation costs are rising very fast, making this part of the expenses one of the major ones. Therefore, the ability of the country to supply itself with the sources of fuel will predetermine the strategic development. China has taken a firm and clear position concerning this issue. Chinese president HU Jintao will try to make each Chinese person twice as reach by the year 2020. This has already been done once, in 1990s, when the Chinese GDP doubled in just five years. Intentions to repeat this marvel clearly prove that the Chinese government will consider any possibilities in order to supply their gigantic manufacturing sector with whatever resources needed (Mortished, C. 2007). The world’s second economy desperately needs copper, natural gas and oil. In just a year, China turned from the world’s largest exporter of coal into one of the biggest importers.

Carl Mortished in his article in The Australian (2007) argues that the processes described above virtually destroy our hopes of a greener economy. As it becomes clear that China is unwilling to halt its industrial growth, other countries realize that carbon dioxide emissions will remain very high or even keep growing, which means that the Kyoto treaty is virtually dead. The idea to switch entirely to natural gas, as a cleaner source of fuel, remains a dream as the prices for gas soar together with the oil, while coal remains much cheaper (Mortished, C. 2007).

One of the major priorities of the Chinese government today is securing long-term stable oil sources. The Mexican gulf is obviously under the US total control, as well Canadian sources, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Middle East region are rather unstable or already under the US influence. This leaves Africa – the world’s least developed region with minimum Western influence and significant oil sources. In order to secure Africa as a major source of oil for the years to come, China decided to use the “Dollar Diplomacy” approach (Engdal, W.). The Chinese have both the wish and the opportunity to enter the African oil market. Overall reserves of the country have reached $1,3 trillion, which allows investing money into underdeveloped African states in exchange for long-term contracts. According to Endgal, W. Global Oil Research

“China has just done an oil deal, linking the Peoples Republic of China with the continent’s two largest nations – Nigeria and South Africa. China’s CNOC will lift the oil in Nigeria, via a consortium that also includes South African Petroleum Co. giving China access to what could be 175,000 barrels a day by 2008. It’s a $2.27 billion deal that gives state-controlled CNOC a 45% stake in a large off-shore Nigeria oil field”

China has been using its influence leverages more wisely than the US, expanding its influence over the region. Nigeria was traditionally considered to be the territory claimed by the US and EU companies, such as Chevron, ExxonMobil and Shell. Chinese government was very generous with the “soft loans” – borrowings with very convenient conditions, such as long terms and zero interest rates.

These loans are used for infrastructure, education and medical assistance. Such favorable conditions are stimulating for the poorer states. IMF and World Bank are providing similar loans and assistance, but at much harsher terms. The interest rate is higher and a number of requirements have to be completed before the country can finally get the desperately needed funds. Considering the volumes of investments and influence gained in the Central Africa and sub-Saharan region, China is now obviously winning the competition with the US for the strategic oil sources.

Sudan is also one of the principal oil-exporting African regions. South Darfur, a problematic province of Sudan is potentially capable of producing as much as 500,000 barrels of crude oil a day. US and China used different tactics to gain extra influence there (Engdal, W.). China has been investing huge sums of money, playing the “dollar card”. Starting in the year 2000, China provided as much $15 billion of foreign direct investments for Sudan. It gained control of a government-owned refinery and a significant share of oil fields. Chinese government also built a pipeline with a net worth of $1,5 billion.

US government decided to use another approach to fulfill its ambitions. Based on the conflict going on in Darfur, US used the term genocide in order to militarize the region to the maximum extent. United States is the only country in the world that insists on the term genocide to be implied to the region. This has a very clear reason: in case the UN agrees that the lasting military conflict can be defined as genocide, NATO will have no other choice but to interfere and militarize the entire area. This would increase the US influence to a great extent and allow exploitation of the Sudan’s oil resources. So far, the reports published by the UN missions, prove that the conflict going on is a military confrontation and the intrusion into Sudan’s inner affairs would mean breaking at least a dozen of international treaties and law principles. Once again, China seems to be more successful in reaching into Africa. The fact that two nations’ interests have come so close to one another rises a logical question: what happens if they finally intersect?

Potential weapon race in the Pacific

During the Cold War of 1945-1990 a number of regions were involved. The main theater, however, was Europe and the Atlantic. In order to confront threat from the USSR, North Atlantic Treaty Organization was formed as a form of international military and political cooperation. Since the break up of the Soviet Union, however, no threat was visible for Europe, so NATO actually started loosing its real practical reason for existence. With China, emerging as a global superpower, this seems to be changing.

For the past several years there was no real rival for the US navy and air force. Only mainland armies and guerilla forces were actually a problem (Kaplan, R.D. 2005). The People’s Republic of China is about to change this status quo. It has the world’s largest land army of over 22 million soldiers and is now working intensively in order to increase its naval and air force potential. It is logical and obvious, as the Chinese rulers have to secure the trade routes in the Southeast Asia for the exports of goods and imports of natural resources from Middle East and Africa. Chinese government also has to protect its long sea line. Surprisingly though, Chinese are not investing into aircraft carriers and rather prefer diesel and nuclear-powered submarines, together with new generations of sea destroyers (Kaplan, R.D.). This is a rather promising fact, as the aircraft carriers are necessary to support the mainland operations, and their absence proves China is not considering a mainland conflict with the US. However, the strike submarines program means that eventually China is planning on expanding its influence into the Pacific Ocean, which would certainly lead to the confrontation with the US fleet, unwilling to retreat from the strategically vital region.

United States are already considering various options in order to strengthen position in the region. The first step involves increasing the military capabilities of the Guam military base. Strategic B2 bombers will be allocated on this island and all the necessary facilities will be built (Gertz, B. 2006). These assault planes shall be placed on the Guam base on a permanent basis. Moreover, 60% of the US attack submarines will be reallocated to the Pacific Ocean within several years (Gertz, B. 2006).

Potential cold war in space

In the beginning of 2007 China tested its first ant-satellite ballistic missile to shoot down one of its aging weather satellites. This rose significant concerns in the US and European Union. Tests of this kind have been banned for two decades, when Soviet Union and USA (the only countries having a possibility to shoot down a satellite), signed a treaty that put the “Star wars” concept to an end (Chan, J.). Both superpowers decided not to turn space into another potential battlefield, as the debris of the destroyed satellites would lead to malfunction of all the space programs, including weather, TV, GPS, Gallileo, Hubble and other important space programs.

The epoch of competition in space now seems to be back: China has launched a ballistic missile quite demonstratively and despite the protest of the other nations. The fact that the People’s Republic now has the necessary technologies and experience to shoot down the military and civilian satellites is indeed rather serious. US have most of its navigation and targeting technologies based on the satellite communications. Therefore, failures in these systems bear great threat to national security. US administration reacted instantly and used the Chinese test as an excuse to abandon the treaty that forbids development of the anti-satellite weaponry. Just several months after the test conducted by Beijing, Washington shot down one of its satellite, reminding HU Jintao that the United States were first to develop the ballistic missiles.

The test conducted in space by China is a demonstration of its current possibilities, but still not a call for a weapon race in space. The government-owned Chinese media did not broadly advertise the success in the space program, simply mentioning a successful test. That is sign that China is trying to prove it is capable of a serious space program, but is unwilling to make space just another field for confrontation (Kuhn, A. 2007). China officially announced that it is willing to continue the space exploration, but firmly stands on the idea that space is not a platform for a serious military competition between the two countries.

Conclusion 

The one-polar world has obviously come to an end. China emerged as the second world power, able to compete with the USA both in economical and military spheres.  China now has the population of over 1,5 billion people. In order to increase the GDP per capita in such a state, oil and other resource consumption will grow significantly, which will finally make the interests of the two countries intersect. Pacific Ocean and space will be the new areas for confrontation.

References

Gertz, B. “Pentagon Hedge Strategy Targets China” The Washington Times. Retrieved June  16, 2009 from: http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20060316-114755-3306r.html

Michael Lelyveld. (2008). “China Economy Plan Meets Political Needs” Retrieved June 16,  2009 from: http://www.rfa.org/english/energy_watch/economy-plan1192008160628.html/

Mortished, C. (2007) “China’s rising living standard cranks up resource competition” The Australian. Retrieved June 14, 2009 from:           http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22603953-5005200,00.html

Engdahl, W.F. “China and USA in New Cold War over Africa’s Oil Riches” Global Oil   Research. Retrieved June 15, 2009 from: www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net.

Cutler, D. “Beyond the U.S.: Geopolitics and Competition for Resources” AlertNet. Retrieved June 16, 2009 from: http://www.alertnet.org/

Kuhn, A. “China Downplays Talk of Space-Weapon Race” Retrieved June 16, 2009 from: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=6963975

Chan, J. (2007) “China’s anti-satellite missile test points to developing space weapons race” Retrieved June 16, 2009 from: http://www.wsws.org/articles/2007/jan2007/chin-j29.shtml

“China tells U.S. to drop “Cold War” mindset on military” published March 2009. Reuters. Retrieved June 16, 2009 from: http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE52P1XM20090326