A Probabilistic Approach to the Causes of Coups D’etat, Research Paper Example

There have been more than seventy-three coups in forty six countries in the last ten years. Most literature talking about coups only make generalizations as to their causes instead of delving into their importance and incidence. Therefore, there need for a theory about coups which will guard against falsifications and avoid untestable hypothesis, or loose concepts which lead to claims of tautology. The new approach should be probabilistic rather than deterministic for two reasons. The first reason is that it is not uncommon to make mistakes during coups. Secondly, despite all the necessary preconditions for coups being present, there are factors which can hinder them from occurring.

Coups are strategies for overthrowing governments, and can either succeed or fail. Failure is mostly due to tactical errors. Some coups may also fail because the conspirators are either unready or miscalculated their steps. The emerging question that needs to be answered is not why coups occur, but the conditions under which they are likely to succeed if attempted. A coup must have certain objective preconditions. The most notable precondition touches on how the present regime handles the economic affairs of a state. Bad performance of the economy leads to accusations of corruption and incompetence, and this can be the basis for a coup.

Generally, from an economic viewpoint, the preconditions of coups are a combination of factors which lead to large fluctuations and increase the likelihood of such fluctuations will destabilize the economy and discredit the government. Occurrence of large fluctuations involves two factors, namely, the wealth of the country and the nature of exports. Under wealth of the country, three factors are at play, namely, specialization in exports; dependence of the economy on exports and the wealth of the country. A country where many of these factors exist, a coup is very likely to be witnessed. The likelihood of large fluctuations to have damaging effects depends on the structure of the local economy. A country that has a single major export is more prone to economic instability than one with a diversified economy. Where export earnings are unstable, the environment is always conducive for coups.

Any attempt by the government to stabilize the economy can only generate more problems. Also, attempts to impose more import controls to fix balance of payments problems will negatively affect the industries that are heavily dependent on imports. As a result, the government may not achieve full production, several industries will suffer, and the unemployment rate will rise. The levels of income in the economy will also be adversely affected. The government will be accused of incompetence and mismanagement.

More difficulties will be experienced in countries that are divided by tribal and racial differences. The government will, in most instances, be accused of corruption and incompetence. A country that has once race or tribal differences, if confronted by a sudden change in the value of the particular export with which it is associated, it will run the clear risk of being accused of corrupt manipulation. In summary, then, it is argued that the preconditions of coups are essentially to be found in countries specializing in and dependent on exports, especially where these goods are primary and the country is poor. Moreover, a coup, rather than any other political event, will be the most likely outcome of these preconditions. Given the accusations of corruption and incompetence, whether justified or not, and the resultant lack of support, the need for a change of government would seem evident.

Luttwak’s method suggests three obstacles to coups. The first obstacle is the independence of governments. The second obstacle is that once a coup has occurred the likelihood of having another will be increased. This may be stated in the form of an obstacle: a country with no experience of a coup will be less likely to have one than a country where one has already occurred. The third obstacle is the presence of foreign troops. The presence of a foreign army becomes an obstacle because, in order to stage a coup, one of the most important strategies is at least to neutralize the army in order to prevent the coup’s failure.

A testable hypothesis that emerges is that the probability of a successful coup is a function of: a country’s poverty; the specialization of its export production; the nature of its exports; the dependence of its economy on export revenues; and the absence of three obstacles – recent independence, the lack of any previous coup and the presence of foreign troops, capable of combat.

Reference

O’Kane, R. H. (1981). A probabilistic approach to the causes of coups d’etat. British Journal of Political Science, 11(3), 287-308.