A Re-Election Dilemma, Research Paper Example

It is a common practice for Americans to forgive those voted into the White House and is seeking for a second term into the office. Silver points out that it is only two of the last eight voted presidents have missed being re-elected for second term. The reason of this controversial long held wisdom, for instance the current president Barack Obama, is likely to come out of his midpresidency slump and win another term.

Most of the presidents who seek re-election for another term usually are not the favorite to win and those who win a re-election are normally faced with worst situations. For instance, President Obama has been faced with the dept-ceiling debates that have crystallized his vulnerability more than the 2010 midterm disaster for the democrats. This has made him to go out of the favorite to win the election to a slight underdog. However, the solid job report for the few months and the prediction that the republicans have selected a poor opponent to him would probably make him the favorite to win again.

In unusual circumstances, taking for example Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton and the Bushes all were like the favorite to win their battles for re-elections might be because their approval rating was strong. It is only Carter who faced a situation worse than Obama’s situation. However, it is evident that those who hold stronger fundamentals as they head to an election year have lost in elections despite their approval rating which is considered extremely high.

Silver states that to lose a re-election, a number of factors are quantified which includes, the Americans reviewing the performance of Obama through the approval rating. It is easier for the Americans to give Obama sympathy votes arguing that they understand Obama inherited America at its worst predicament. The perceived ideology of the opponent plays a major role in the election. As Silver points out, it is only the ideological position of a candidate that matters, as the presidents are not necessarily evaluated on performance. For example, the political position of Jimmy Carter was closer to the centre of electorates than that of Ronald Reagan and nobody cares or questioned jimmy Carter’s 12 percent inflation rate and Iran’s hostage crisis.

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