Donkey vs. Elephant, Essay Example

I believe President Barack Obama will win 292 electorates and Mitt Romney will win 246 electorates, ensuring another four years for Democrats in the White House. In deciding whether states with close race will go to Democrats or Republicans, I looked at the states’ voting history which is given on the website. I have been closely following political news so I also took recent events into account. I might have predicted that Florida will go to Republicans since it has a large population of elderly people. A recent poll reported that support for Romney among the elderly stands at 52 percent as compared to President Obama’s 42 percent (The Associated Press). But Romney’s latest controversy due to his criticism of 47 percent Americans who don’t pay tax, will hurt support for him among the elderly voters in my opinion and may even cost him Florida. This is because many elderly live on Social Security payments which are tax-exempted.

Similarly, Nevada voted for President Obama in 2008 but I think Romney will take it this time. This is because Nevada still has not recovered from the effects of the 2007 financial crisis and the unemployment rate in Nevada is the highest in the nation (The Associated Press). Thus, disappointment with the government’s performance in creating jobs may persuade Nevada’s residents to give chance to the Republican presidential candidate. I predict Pennsylvania will again go for President Obama because the state has not endorsed any Republican presidential candidate since 1992. Similarly, I also expect Indiana to go to President Obama because the state has endorsed a Republican presidential candidate only once since 1988.

Source http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=AiC

References

The Associated Press. Nevada Sen. Heller seeks distance from Romney comments. 19 September 2012. 19 September 2012 <http://www.bostonherald.com/news/national/west/view/20120919nevada_sen_heller_seeks_distance_from_romney_comments/srvc=home&position=recent>.

—. Romney’s ’47 Percent’ Includes Elderly, Families, Wealthy Americans. 18 September 2012. 19 September 2012 <http://www.jacksonfreepress.com/news/2012/sep/18/romneys-47-percent-includes-elderly-families-wealt/>.