Forecasting and Production Planning for a Hospital, Essay Example

Company forecasting techniques refer to the various methods that are used to help the organization or company to plan. Most of the forecasting techniques are based subjective criteria. They often result to little more than wild wishful thoughts. Other techniques are based on measurable and historical, quantitative data. These are given extra credit from outside parties. These outside investors include analysts and potential investors. However, it is very significant to note that there is no forecasting tool that can be able to predict to certainty the future. This paper is entirely to discuss on the various forecasting techniques in a hospital. It is also going to elaborate on the efficiency of the techniques. In addition, recommendations on some of the techniques will be taken into accounting.

The techniques applied in this hospital include Delphi technique. This is denoted through experts who react to a sequence of questionnaires. The experts are not conscious of each other and therefore, making the forecast more efficient. The results of the first questionnaire are complied taking into consideration the second and third questioners. The questioners are then presented to various experts who explore on them. The questioning, requisitioning, and compilation proceeds until the researchers have a narrow range of ideas (Firth, 1977, p. 104).

Scenario writing is another kind of forecasting that is practiced in the hospital. This criterion comes up with various results based on diverse starting criteria. The decision maker in the company decides on the most appropriate outcome from the copious presented. This kind of forecasting is not certain since it can yield any outcomes-positive or negative. Time-series forecasting is also another forecasting method or technique that is used in this hospital. It is majorly a quantitative forecasting method. Basically, it takes into account data measured over identified trends. The data in this company is taken over a range of period in line with monthly duration. The shifting of the trends over time is considered and recorded for statistical analysis (Butler 1977, p. 145).

Subject approach is not much used in my hospital. The technique of forecasting allows forecasters to predict the probable outcomes of business through expressing their feelings and thoughts. It usually applies brainstorming criteria to obtain the best ideas and solve problems regularly. This makes it free from criticism including peer pressure (Firth, 1996, p. 156). The technique is most applicable during constraints forbid purposive forecasts.

However, most if these techniques are not effective. The efficiency of a technique can be established through the final outcome. The most effective technique includes subject approach. This is because it takes into consideration the opinions of all members and experts from the hospital. This makes it easier to predict the future of the hospital. The best ideas also can be obtained and applied to come up with a conclusion. I will also recommend the used of scenario writing technique. This is because the criteria consider a selection of experts who work, with various opinions, to forecast the future of the company. I would recommend on eliminating the Delphi technique, which is out dated, and replacing it with subjective approach that is more of benefit (Butler 1996, p. 78).

The service that is practiced in this company is the allocation of medical and treatment to patients. The production planning strategies I would recommend is the stable work force and subcontracting. This is because this company regards the analysis of the various aspects of its production. Stable workforce will ensure that the company runs with efficiency and will thus help forecasting. In conclusion, it is important to note that business forecasting requires a more effective technique. The technique must cover all aspects of the company and dominate on the available data from all the concerned.

References

Butler, W. & Platt, R. (1996). Methods and techniques of business forecasting. New York, NY: Prentice-Hall Publishers.

Firth, M. (1977). Forecasting methods in business and management. New York, NY: Edward Arnold Publishers.