Hilary Clinton Will Be Elected President of US in 2016 Election, Essay Example

One person that will provide probability judgment is a political science analyst with a specialization in statistics.  Political scientist is well versed in government and foreign policies, number of voters in every state and they also help candidates prepare for debate. These factors help the Political analyst gauge the amount that will be in their favor and the probability of winning the election.

Now we are assuming that Hilary Clinton will be running on a Democratic ticket, so she is a candidate in the primaries. She has equal chances of winning as the other candidate (that is a probability of 0.5). This value can approach 1 or approach zero as the primaries come to an end. However, if she does not win the primaries, she has the option to run as an independent candidate. If Hilary wins the Democratic ticket, she will vie for the Presidency of USA. Her chance of winning will be 0.5, same for the Republican candidate. The probability estimates will fluctuate as we approach the general election.

The nature of events and expectations will be abbreviated as follows:

• W.P=win primaries, L.P=lose primaries, E.P=elected President,
• E.P’=not elected president (meaning that the Republican wins),
• R.I=runs as an independent (after losing in the Democratic Party primaries),
• R.I’=does not run as an independent (therefore she endorses the Democratic Party candidate).

The conditional probabilities will be; the likelihood that Hilary gets elected President on condition that she wins the primaries. The other conditional probability to consider is; the probability that Hilary gets elected President on condition that she loses the primaries.

Therefore, Hilary has a higher chance of winning the Presidency on the condition that she wins the Democratic primaries. Otherwise, her chance to be elected President reduce considerably.

Greece will leave the EU during 2015

• Economic Analysts/ financial analyst are responsible for predicting the exit of Greece from the EU. Analyst will look at macro-economic factors in Greece and the country’s capability to pay back the ECB and IMF bailout package.
• For Greece to have leverage and eventually exit the Eurozone, they must successfully negotiate an extension of the repayment period for their bailout package. The chances of a successful agreement being reached is 0.7, while the chance of Greece exit is 0.333 (i.e. 2/1 odds), incase successful negotiation occur.
• R= probability of successfully negotiating a loan repayment period extension.

R’=No successful negotiation in loan repayment period extension.

E=probability of exit, E’ =probability of no exit.

• The conditional probability to calculate is, probability that Greece exits Eurozone on condition they have successfully negotiated a repayment methodology for the bailout package they received.