Is the Earth Really Getting Warmer? Research Paper Example

Introduction

With the advent of the Kyoto Protocol in 1998, international investment in global greenhouse gas emissions reductions has exceeded exponentially. Attendant to the impact of legislative policy, and continued work in the direction of climate mitigation research and innovation are of course, developments promoted by weather and earth centered space science satellite science missions of national agencies dedicated to the study of atmospheric transformations. In the United States, study of climate change and the global warming effect is monitored on the NOAA-N is the latest polar-orbiting satellite developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA) in its Climate Change partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); and the Orbiting Climate Observatory (OCO) mission at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). Data disseminated from those satellite monitoring missions supports Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) mission in public reporting of information on atmospheric changes impacting Earth.

The study of global warming by NASA GISS is conducted with a core temperature analysis scheme defined in the late 1970s by James Hansen for estimation of global temperature change in correlation with one-dimensional global climate models (NASA GISS, 2010). The rationale to study of temperature anomalies rather than mere actual data is that Southern Hemisphere stations reported sufficient and meaningful estimates of global temperature change over substantial geographical distances. Retroactive calculations from those stations evidenced that after 1940, there has been a net global warming of about 0.4°C between the 1880s and 1970s with correlation of temperature change relatively strong between stations separated by up to 1200 km, and particularly at middle and high latitudes. Standard deviation of quantified estimates revealed a 5-year mean temperature change by sampling at spatially separate stations using a longitudinal analysis of global climate variability. However, the error bar only addressed incomplete spatial coverage of measurements. As there are other mitigating factors, such as urban warming near meteorological stations, were not used in the verification of approximate magnitude of inferred global warming.

Other methods of studying atmospheric impact of global warming include inference studies of surface temperature change using bore holes for vertical temperature range, and rate of glacier retreat noted in studies of ground and sea temperature polar warming. In all cases, tests yield reliable and repeated estimates of the approximate magnitude of global warming – now increasing at twice the rate as reported in 1981 (NASA GISS, 2010). Current analysis at NASA GISS uses surface air temperature measurements, data from meteorological stations, and satellite information.

Analysis

In consideration of calculation of global warming in the past sixty years, the foregoing research on NASA and NOAA data on atmospheric change is based on the NASA GISS formula for derivation of means, standard deviations and other test statistics with potential alpha levels at .10, .05, and .01 levels. The study is based on two (2) hypotheses:

Hypothesis 1

Ho: The mean temperature for the period between 1951 and 2010 is less than or equal to the mean global temperature for the period 1907 to 1950.

Ha: The mean global temperature for the period between1951 to 2010 is greater than the mean global temperature for the period 1907 to 1950.

Hypothesis 2

Ho: The mean global temperature for the period 1981 to 2010 is less than or equal to the mean global temperature for the period 1951-1980.

Ha: The mean global temperature for the period 1981 to 2010 is greater than or equal to the mean global temperature for the period 1951 to 1980.

Although not used in official NASA-NOAA reporting on global climate change the formula for calculation of Absolute Temperature Scale changes from NASA GISS anomaly data drawn from the combined air temperature measurements, the NOAA satellite and polar station monitoring mission in atmosphere is illustrated.

Review of GISS reported findings shows that statistical significance is based on Global Temperature Anomalies in 0.01 degrees Celsius illustrated in Table 2 with distribution of temperature anomalies illustrated in Graph 1.

According to NASA GISS (2009) the calendar year of 2008 was the coolest year since 2000. The estimates based on surface air temperature measurements indicate that human efforts at GHG emissions mitigation may be working. The ten warmest years all occur within the 12-year period 1997-2008, with 2008 reporting as the ninth warmest year in the total period of instrumental measurements retroactive to 1880. GISS indicators reveal a two-standard-deviation (95% confidence) uncertainty in comparative analysis with recent years for an estimated 0.05°C change. Best estimates point to a 7th to 10^th range warmest year on NASA-NOAA record illustrated in Graph 2.

Conclusive results to the study on global warming reveal the following findings on related to Hypothesis 1 and 2:

Results to Hypothesis 1

Ha: The mean global temperature for the period between1951 to 2010 is greater than the mean global temperature for the period 1907 to 1950.

Results to Hypothesis 2

Ha: The mean global temperature for the period 1981 to 2010 is greater than or equal to the mean global temperature for the period 1951 to 1980.

Aggregate findings derived from analysis of data from NASA-NOAA reveal consistent acceleration of global warming, with lower outcomes for the aforementioned 2008 calendar year. From the perspective of recorded temperature anomalies, policy based interests targeting mitigation are founded.

Conclusion

On February 24, 2009, orbit of the OCO satellite failed as it was being carried into space when the Taurus rocket carrying the craft detached and crashed into the sea near Antarctica. In response to the critical impact that other national space based atmospheric monitory missions such as Japan’s GOSAT which contributes to NASA GISS annual reporting on global warming in collaboration toward an international record of climate change effects, the faulty initial launch of the Observatory was followed by reschedule of the project.

In response to major queries in climate science stemming from uncertain­ties in the comprehensive calculation of actual GCC (i.e. biomass, carbon fluxes, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and land cover changes), the OCO research process is directed at: documentation and quantification of the GCC and projection of ecological forecasts as inputs for improved climate change predictions. Calculation of the GCC is in furtherance of methodologies presently used to determine global warming, with developments at the OCC and other space-based, satellite climate change missions critical to advancement of scientific accuracy (Campbell, 2010).

According to Senior Scientist, David Crisp at NASA OCO, of the approximately 330 billion tones of GCC gas produced annually, much of the total is absorbed by carbon sinks constituted of photosynthesis of plants and chemical precipitation. Since industrialization, the small amount of carbon remaining has contributed to the rise of CO₂ concentration. Ongoing OCO research is directed at explanation of the unequal exchange in atmospheric CO₂ concentration from release to removal by the sinks (Crisp, 2008).

Enhanced high-resolution measurements of atmospheric profiles of carbon dioxide and methane are future goals of the scientific monitoring capabilities at JPL OCO. Current measurements look at at­mospheric carbon dioxide concentrations “to advance NASA’s ability to locate and quantify regional carbon sources and sinks; dramatically increasing the number of global mea­surements over what can be provided with ground-based networks and aircraft. Investment in the development of advanced technologies to improve “well-calibrated and validated systematic observations” of atmospheric profiles is of key interest.

The recent Conference of the Parties (COP/15) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Copenhagen in December 2009 concluded in agreement toward furtherance of strategic planning in finance, technology, operations, law and policy. Endorsement and adoption of those forthcoming resolutions dedicated to global disaster management, meteorological forecasting from climate modeling, satellite navigation, and communications will be contiguous with the COPOUS/UNOOSA Programme on Space Applications; “space-based solutions for solving environmental monitoring and natural resources management issues” (UNOOSA, 2010).

The success of the NASA global climate change mission will ultimately be dependent upon the continuous development of those climate-quality systems of observation. Translation into budgetary expenditures on protracted carbon related missions will depend on the resolution of atmospheric scientists to solve uncertainties in atmospheric measurement cited by JPL OCO. Doing so stands to have profound impact on the GHG emissions reductions efforts, and global sustainable resource management

References

Campbell, T. (2010). Flight CO2. LastSky communications. Retrieved from: http://lastskyco.com/CO2.aspx

Crisp, D. (2008). The Orbiting Carbon Observatory: NASA’s First Dedicated Carbon Dioxide Mission. Jet Propulsion Laboratory/California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA,USA 91109-8099.

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (2010). Retrieved from: http://data.giss.nasa.gov

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (2010). Retrieved from: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov

United Nations Office for Outer Space Activities (2010). Retrieved from: http://www.oosa.unvienna.org