Over-the-Month Change in Unemployment Rates, Statistics Problem Example

Summary

Unemployment continues to raise questions in the US economy as President Obama’s administration tries to avail more jobs for the American population. The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics conducts surveys on employment every month. This aims at providing the statistics needed to put sound economic policies.

This project looks at the Over-the-Month Change in Unemployment Rates for States and tries to find the link between the two months statistics on unemployment. The unemployment rates were for the two consecutive months of May and June 2012. From the analysis, it was found that the mean unemployment rate for May 2012 was 7.29 and 7.35 for the month of June 2012 with a standard deviation of 1.77 and 1.79 respectively. The illustrated rates are a percentage of the total labor force. In addition, the data referred to the place of residence. This estimates collected by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics are subject to revision every following month.

Introduction

Unemployment and employment are some of the key word used in day to day live. Unemployment comes about when people have no jobs and are actively searching for jobs. The unemployment rate measures the frequency of unemployment and is calculated as a percentage. It is divided the number of unemployed people by all persons in the labor force (ILO, p.4).

Several theories of unemployment try to explain the causes of joblessness in countries. In economics, distinctions are made between the types of unemployment. The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics measures and surveys on six types of unemployment. The bureau measures unemployment and employment of individuals over the age of 15 years using two labor force surveys. These include the surveys carried by the United States Census Bureau and United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. The departments gather these statistics monthly. The survey is based on a sample of 60,000 households.

In the field of Economics, statistics on employment and unemployment must exist in order to make sound economic policies. Employment in economics under the labor market relates to the number of people that the economy can absorb and pay them a reasonable wage. Unemployed people consist of those individuals having the ability, available, and expressed the willingness to work at the existing wages and salaries, but have not found a job or work even though searching for jobs.

Every month the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics performs surveys on businesses and other agencies on employment status and the wages they pay. This report also gives the number of industries that have shown growth and those that are declining.

Data Collection Source and Procedure

Data collection methods describe the process used to prepare and collect data. In this project, the secondary data collection method was used in collecting data on employment statistics in the United States. It was necessary to use this method due to the nature of the project and the degree of accuracy desired in this research. The source of this data was the United States Bureau of Statistics. This is a source that one has trust on because all economic policies made regarding employment depend on the Bureau’s work.

Due to the nature of this project, it was necessary to use the secondary data collection methods. This project required the following procedure planning on how to collect data was carried out. Second was to ensure that relevant data was collected in the course of project development. The data was collected and entered in a database for safety and to facilitate easy transformation for analysis.

Consistency checks were performed so as to ensure that data was correct. This aims at reducing errors that arise in data collection. The data collected was quantitative in nature and was obtained form a secondary source. The data collected was put in Excel spreadsheet in order to perform relevant analysis. Descriptive statistics including the mean, median, and standard deviation for the two months were estimated.

Study Procedure

The following scatter diagram was drawn from the collected data in order to get a picture of the work. The data for the two months was significant in carrying out the project. A comparison for the two months was easy to make.

Fig. 1 xy scatter plot for May and June unemployment rate for the States.

Descriptive Statistics

Using Excel spreadsheet, descriptive statistics on the data were performed in order to find the mean, median and standard deviation for the two months. From the results in this project, for the 51 States whose data was used in this project, the average unemployment rate was 7.35 for the month of June 2012.

Statistical Methodology

The equation of a linear regression line can be calculated in Excel with built in functions. After entering the paired scores of data on the Excel spreadsheet, the cursor is then moved to the function wizard (fx) button and clicking on it. After the dialog box appears, one then clicks on Statistical followed by selecting SLOPE.

Correlation Coefficient can be determined in Excel through for major steps. The first one involves entering the paired scores or data for each subject on the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. This is followed by placing the cursor where one needs to put the correlation coefficient or Pearson’s r and clicking the mouse button. The cursor is then moved to the function wizard (fx) button and click on it. After the dialog box appears, one then clicks on Statistical on the left section of the box and then CORREL on the right section. After the selections, one then clicks on Next> located at dialog box’s bottom side. Then the cell range is entered for the first variable under study in the Array 1 box. This is done by selecting the variables in a given column and the rows the variables take. The same is done on the second variable under Array 2 box. Once this is done, then one clicks on Finish at the bottom of this dialog box. Then, the correlation between these variables appears on the selected cell.

Coefficient of determination in Excel is determined by first making a xy scatter plot of given data using Excel. Then, one clicks on any point and selects the “add tend line” followed by the selection of the appropriate regression type. In this case, it is linear regression. Then, one clicks on the options tab and then checks on the dialog box that says display r^2 values on the chart.

When doing the normal and backward normal calculations and simulations of normal distributions in Excel, one clicks on the Formulas function, followed by the function wizard (fx). Then one selects the Statistical category followed by NORMDIST. Then one moves the cursor and clicks on OK.

Results

From the results found by the U.S Bureau of labor statistics, unemployment in the month of June 2012 stood at 12.6 million people. This was an unemployment rate of 8.2 percent. For the 51 States whose data was used in this project, the average unemployment rate was 7.35 for the month of June 2012. This poses a statistical discrepancy between the results of the project with the national unemployment rate. From the analysis, it was found that the mean unemployment rate for May 2012 was 7.29 and 7.35 for the month of June 2012 with a standard deviation of 1.77 and 1.79 respectively.

Data Listings

This table shows the data that was taken from the US Bureau of Labor and Statistics. It presents the raw data for Over-the-Month Change in Unemployment Rates for States for the Months of May and June 2012. It also shows the average (mean), median and standard deviation of the data calculated using Excel.

Table 1: Over-the-Month Change in Unemployment Rates for States for the Months of May and June 2012

Work Cited

ILO. “The Thirteenth International Conference of Labour Statisticians.” October 1982. International Labor Organization Web site. Web. 1 August 2012 <http://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/stat/download/res/ecacpop.pdf>.