Population Aging, Research Paper Example

By definition, population aging refers to the growing number of older adults over the age of sixty-five as contrasted with the decreasing numbers of younger adults. In other words, the population of older adults is slowly outpacing the population or number of younger adults, due to advances in medicine which helps people to live longer lives. Thus, in the not too distant future, the number of older adults, most of them being “Baby Boomers,” will place a tremendous strain on many important social programs and services, such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid in the United States, and health-related programs and services at the state level. This trend will also severely affect the number of people available for long-term employment via an aging workforce.

According to World Population Ageing for 1950 to 2050, a span of one hundred years, the number of people in the country of Sweden in 1950 over the age of 65 stood at 719,000; in 2050, it is projected that the number of people over the age of 65 in Sweden will be approximately 2.15 million or three times the number in 1950. Interestingly, the number of people over the age of 95 in Sweden in 1950 stood at zero, while in 2050, it is projected that this number will reach approximately 85,000. Therefore, the number of  adults over the age of 65 will exceed the number of people under the age of 14 which is projected to be about 1.08 million in 2050. For Sweden, these numbers indicate that national health care programs will be pushed to the limit, due to the number of people over the age of 65 and an increase in the lifespan because of medical advances.

In Sweden, the fertility rate or the number of children that a woman could have between the ages of 15 and 49 was 2.2 children (1950 to 1955); after 1955, the rate slowly decreased and now stands at 1.3 children. By 2050, the rate is expected to increase to 2.0, almost the same as 1955. Life expectancy or the number of years a person is expected to live was 73.3 for women and 70.3 for men in 1955; by 2050, life expectancy is projected to climb to 87.1 for women and 82.1 for men. The total dependency ratio or the amount of individuals less than 15 years of age plus individuals 65 or older out of 100 individuals between 15 and 64 was 50.8 in 1955, and by 2050, the rate is expected to increase to 79.6. What this means is that by 2050, the number of people under 15 years old and older than 65 will equal to about 80% of the total population in Sweden.

Similarly, the number of people in the United States over the age of 65 in 1950 stood at about 12.8 million; in 2050, this number is expected to increase to about 79 million or approximately six times as many. Also, the number of people over the age of 85 in 1950 stood at about 1.8 million, but by 2050, this number is expected to rise to about 17 million. In addition, in 1950, there were approximately zero persons either 100 years old or older, but by 2050, this number is expected to rise to about 473,000 persons. For those Americans under the age of 15, their numbers are expected to reach about 73 million by 2050. Therefore, much like Sweden, this huge increase in persons over 65 years old will place a tremendous burden on health care programs and especially Social Security.

As to fertility rates, the average number of children in 1955 was about 3.4, but by 2050, this number is expected to fall to about 2.1. Life expectancy will also rise from about 69 years old in 1950 to about 83 years old by 2050. The total dependency ratio is expected to rise to about 66 persons (less than 15 years old but 65 or older). Therefore, like Sweden, the number of persons in the U.S. 65 years old or older is expected to increase more than six times, thus severely affecting national and private health care programs and Social Security which some predict could go bankrupt before the year 2030.

References

World population ageing. (2012). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs-Population Division. Retrieved from http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/worldageing19502050