Predicting the Future of Information Technology, Research Paper Example

In July 2014 a partnership between Apple Inc. and IBM was announced. The crux of the agreement between the two computing giants is that IBM will begin offering iOS devices such as iPads, iPhones, and Macbooks pre-loaded with enterprise specific apps. This announcement has received considerable attention in the IT world and on Wall Street, as analysts in both fields attempt to predict the impact this deal will have on competitors like Google and Microsoft and whether Apple will be able to penetrate the enterprise realm in any significant way. Whatever the future holds, the partnership between IBM and Apple serves as a bellwether for the current state of IT, as it represents a merger between the business-oriented world of IBM and what has, until recently, been the consumer-oriented world of Apple products. It has been the explosive growth of consumer technology that has driven many of the changes in enterprise and corporate IT as mobile devices and laptops become the devices of choice for workers.  This mobility is fueling the evolution and even revolution of IT and pointing the way to the future of the industry.

Background and Overview

Beginning in the second half of the 20^th century computers began to reshape the business world. In the era of mainframe computers, businesses were able to store information and access it from dedicated dumb devices that were little more than portals to the resources in the mainframe. The introduction and evolution of the desktop PC fueled explosive growth in how computers were used in the corporate and business world, as employees were able to interact with the power and functionality of their office computers to crunch numbers in spreadsheets, develop and monitor budgets, and other fundamental activities. Even as the capacities of the PC evolved, their use in the workplace remained largely tied to company mainframes and internal networks.  By the 1990s, as the general public became aware of the existence and capabilities of the Internet, the way that people used computers in their public and private lives began to change.

The connectivity of the Internet soon gave rise to new trends like telecommuting and allowed businesses to respond more quickly and efficiently to the needs of suppliers and customers. In the early years of the Internet revolution, however, most end-users remained tethered to desktop PCs or, in some cases, laptop computers. Even as businesses began to adapt their IT infrastructure to the new realities of the connected world, most continued to adhere to the established patterns of centralized servers feeding outward to the user sitting at his or her desktop or laptop. Security issues were envisioned in this same way; IT infrastructure was protected with layers of security like a castle surrounded by a moat. This vision of IT as something hidden away within an organization would soon give way to a new reality with the introduction of a device not for businesses, but for consumers.

When Apple Inc. introduced the iPhone in 2007, it would have been impossible to predict that by 2014 there would be billions of smart devices in use around the world. The open-sourced Android OS offered by Google helped fuel this explosive growth, and mobile devices are now a common –and often indispensable- part of the enterprise realm.  Despite the ubiquity of mobile phones, tablets and laptops in business, Apple’s commitment to high-end consumer devices has allowed a wide array of hardware and software manufacturers to enter the marketplace. As consumers have made their personal devices a central part of their daily lives, IT departments have felt pressure from workers and management alike to move towards a bring-your-own-device (BYOD) model that allows workers to use their own devices for personal and work-related tasks.

These and other trends have forced businesses to reconsider many of the traditional ways they have used computers. Computers are no longer just passive repositories of data, and access to computers is no longer confined to PCs and terminals sitting on desks in offices. Mobile devices can support connectivity between organizations and workers, workers and workers, and businesses and customers. These devices can also be used for productivity as in-house and vendor-supplied apps allow workers to do on their phones what used to require access to a mainframe or company network. New approaches to the implementation of software and applications, new approaches to data storage, and new approaches to connectivity are underpinning a revolution in IT.

Hardware and the Internet of Things

As previously noted, the most significant drivers of change in the world of IT have been the explosive growth in the scale and scope of the Internet and the matching growth in the availability and applicability of mobile devices. Technology is no longer the sole province of IT specialists; billions of people around the world are now using mobile devices in their personal and professional lives. The idea of “the Internet of Things” has come to define the current paradigm of connectivity between an array of different devices, platforms, and services. For most users, the Internet is not just about using a web browser to passively view information; instead, it is a vital flexible conglomeration of purpose-drive uses that can be accessed from virtually anywhere through phones, tablets, laptops, PCs, and other devices.

With technology now in the hands of so many users, the issues of functionality and productivity are paramount. Software and applications must function smoothly and easily across an array of platforms and devices. While it may not be uncommon for a worker to have both a work phone and personal phone, the trend towards BYOD and the blurring of lines between work devices and personal devices means that IT professionals must ensure that enterprise services function smoothly on different devices and different operating systems.

SaaS and CaaS

In the traditional setting, IT infrastructure has been monolithic and centralized; in the future the trend will be towards less centralization and more connectivity.  Bulky, expensive, and often-clunky software is rapidly being displaced by a software-as-a-service (SaaS) model, wherein organizations replace the purchase (or development) of software packages with subscription-based approaches. An example of this trend that is familiar to consumers and business alike is in the changes in software such as Microsoft’s suite of Office programs. Office programs such as Word and Excel are ubiquitous in the business environment; in the traditional model users –either individuals or businesses- purchased copies of the software while also paying license fees for every PC on which the software would be loaded and deployed. Although this licensing model is still in use with products from Microsoft and myriad other vendors, the growth of mobile, BYOD, and other trends is pushing users towards a subscription model.

Instead of purchasing copies of the software, users can simply pay subscription fees for access to the functionality of Office or other programs. The software functions, data storage, and other connectivity and processing functions are all conducted via the Internet, obviating the need for an organization to develop and maintain the server infrastructure needed to host and run the software. The SaaS model also aligns more easily with mobile devices, allowing users to access the functionality of a particular program on their smart phones or tablets without the need for hosting copies of the software on all their devices. While Microsoft’s subscription-based Office software is a good example of this approach, it is hardly the only one; the trend way from rigid architecture and software hosting and towards SaaS and cloud storage is clear.

The Future of IT

For decades the traditional IT department –or at least the stereotype of the traditional IT department- was a world of its own that functioned according to its own rules. As businesses began to incorporate computers into their operations, there was a need for specialized, highly-trained IT specialists who were responsible for explaining to company executives what compeers could do for them and how, they could be implemented.  Business and organizations built and maintained systems that were often highly proprietary and that were not designed for flexibility and adaptation to change. This approach was driven in part by the realties and limitations of technology; it was also driven by the organizational division between IT departments and the rest of the organizations they were intended to serve. At the dawn of the Internet age the trend towards expanding IT departments and growing IT budgets continued, as businesses looked to technology as the solution to almost any problem (). These upward trends were eventually stalled and then reversed by two significant disruptions: the first was the bursting of the dot-com bubble; the second was the subsequent growth of the mobile sector.

As budgets have been slashed and businesses move away from infrastructure and towards SaaS, CaaS, and flexible, responsive IT strategies, the nature of IT departments and jobs are also changing. IT departments must still deploy and maintain company computers and servers, but as the more and more organizations embrace new models, the number of people and the size of budgets devoted to IT continue to shrink. Business are seeking IT solutions that are fast, flexible, and inexpensive, and highly-trained IT professionals are no longer in demand the way they were in the 1990s and the early 2000s (). This does not mean that business no longer need help with enterprise IT, but it does mean that the number and the type of IT jobs are rapidly changing, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

While it is impossible to predict exactly what the IT department of the future will look like, there are a number of current trends that can offer some insight. A recent report from Cisco predicts that by the year 2020 there will be 50 billion devices (such as tablets, smart phones, laptops, and PCs) in use around the world (Goodwin, 2014). The exponential growth in mobile computing and connectivity has underpinned many of the changes in IT over the past several years; with that in mind, the doubling or tripling of the number of devices will likely continue to among the most significant forces in shaping the future of IT. The shift from IT being relegated to a particular department and into the hands of end users means that many (or even most) businesses will no longer need to keep a large IT staff on hand. SaaS, CaaS, mobility, and automation will mean that IT professionals with technical skills and knowledge will still be needed, but they will be concentrated in the companies that provide services and platforms rather than clustered in individual businesses and organizations.

At the same time as the traditional IT department is becoming a relic of the past, businesses are relying on technology more than ever before. This means that businesses will still need access to the expertise and skills of IT professionals, even though they will be less inclined to keep a large IT staff on hand. Such changes will mean that the IT jobs of the future will be much different than they were in the past. Instead of adhering to the traditional model of operating an IT department with a department manager reporting to senior executives, many organizations are creating positions for Chief Information Officers (CIOs). To an extent, CIOs can be viewed as in-house IT consultants. As companies move away from monolithic architecture and propriety hardware and software systems towards SaaS and cloud computing, CIOs are tasked with making determinations about which of the myriad available options are best suited for their organizations. Smaller organizations that either cannot afford or do not need a full-time CIO may turn to hiring consultants as needed; such consultants may offer ideas about IT implementation across the board, while others may concentrate on specific areas, such as HR, social media, or B2B.

The potential for such specialization both reflects current trends and points the way to the future. While mobility and connectivity are driving new uses for technology, the user experience is central to the current and future uses of IT. IT departments of the past often  required employees with extensive technical knowledge; the current implantation of IT across virtually any and all departments of a business requires less technical expertise and more knowledge about the capabilities of a particular piece of hardware or software. In short, what is important now is now how something works, but whether it works for solving a particular problem or accomplishing a specific task. For example, a company that wishes to expand its social media presence does not require the services of someone who understands the code underlying a given platform; instead, they require someone who understands what the platform does, who it reaches, and how the company can best utilize it.

This IT-professional-as-consultant model is applicable across a range of departments and organizational functions. Sales and advertising departments, for example, may wish to have access to and analysis of consumer data gleaned from social media. A social media consultant must be able to implement a solution that meets the individual needs of each department and also allows the departments to share data in ways that benefit them and the entire organization. When the HR department wishes to exploit the advantages of social media for networking and recruiting, it will be the responsibility of the social media consultant to ensure that the organization’s social media presence is consistent, positive, responsive, and useful. This consultant will, of course, have to possess some measure of technical knowledge, but the focus of his or her responsibilities will be on reducing friction and ensuring that the functions of any particular solution are as simple and seamless as possible.

It should be noted that the changes in the world of IT over the past decade have not completely, or even mostly, eliminated all instances of traditional IT departments. In April 2014 Microsoft announced that it was ending its ongoing support for its XP OS; news coverage of this announcement made it clear that despite its age, XP was (and still is) one of the most widely-used operating systems in business. While Microsoft was encouraging business and individual users to begin the migration process to a newer OS, it soon became clear that many organizations either would not or could not complete (or even begin) the process in time for the cutoff date. This story reveals that IT professionals are still in demand for maintaining legacy systems at the same time as businesses are adapting to and adopting new technologies and applications. It also makes clear that many businesses and organizations will require IT project managers to oversee processes related to transitioning from older technologies and systems and towards newer systems.  Such IT PMs stand at the juncture between the traditional IT department employees who possess technical expertise and training and the new world of CIOs, consultants, and service providers.

Summary and Conclusion

Even the most cursory research into the subject of “the future of IT” reveals an overwhelming amount of often-conflicting information.  A 2007 report that attempted to make predictions for the future of IT asserted that organizations would increasingly expect to gather and analyze data in new ways (McDonald, 2007) ; this prediction about the significance of analytics was accurate to some degree, but the author of the report could not have predicted how the release of the iPhone a few months later would spark yet another revolution in the way individuals and organizations use technology. This example shows how challenging it can be to predict the future where technology is concerned. With this challenge in mind, however, several trends do appear to point the way towards the future of IT.

The most significant trend has been the growth in the availability and use of mobile devices in the enterprise realm. This overarching trend has driven the growth of other trends, from SaaS to cloud storage and computing to the need for IT professionals who understand or specialize in specific applications, platforms, or services. As consumers and individuals users have become increasingly familiar and comfortable with computers and mobile devices, the psychological wall dividing people according to their use of technology has begun to crumble away. The stereotype of the frazzled office worker who stands by as someone from the IT department works to fix a dysfunctional desktop OC has given way to the mobile worker or telecommuter who flips through a list of apps to choose one that will solve a particular problem. In this scenario a non-working device is, at worst, a nuisance, while a non-working app or piece of software is a problem for the vendor rather than the IT department.

At its core, IT is diverging into three distinct types. The first of these is comprised of the technical experts who are still needed to maintain legacy systems, install or implement hardware and software, and otherwise deal with the more traditional IT-related needs of an organization. The next consists of coders, developers, and those with the appropriate technical skills for providing the services that many organizations are outsourcing. The third are the CIOs, the IT consultants, the platform-specific experts, and other problem-solver types whose roles are to understand and predict the IT-related needs of a specific organization. A business that wishes to move towards SaaS, or wants to move data storage to the cloud, or wants to establish or expand its social media presence, still requires the expertise and input of professionals who understand how best to accomplish these tasks.

Like any technology, as IT continues to grow it will continue to become easier to use and harder to fix. In the earliest days of the automobile, for example, those who purchased a car had to know how to fix it or know someone who could. The typical automobile of the early 21^st century is far more advanced than the automobile of the early 20^th century, and the number of people with the skills needed to fix it has shrunk accordingly. This is true in IT as well; the typical organization no longer needs to maintain a large IT staff to build and repair its computer systems; as such systems have grown in complexity and capability, the trend towards outsourcing their related services has grown accordingly. The automobile analogy marks the trend line for the future of IT: almost everyone will drive, but almost no one will repair their own cars, change their own oil, or even fix their own flat tires. The future of IT puts users in the driver’s seat; those who understand this will build the roads and draw the maps that point the way.

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