Presidential Election, Essay Example

Which recent Presidential Election is most relevant to the 2012? 2000, 2004 or 2008?

I believe the most relevant Presidential Election to the 2012 is the 2008.  The 2008 election was one that hinged on a reaction to the economy.  2008 marked the beginning of the economic downturn, and the electorate voted for the Democratic candidate because they perceived the Republican Party as having led them into the recession.

The same situation is in place with the 2012 Presidential Election.  The economy is still stagnant despite a change in Party of the President, so voters will likely roll the dice and choose the opposition.

Is 2012 going to wind up as a race to the center (as in 2000) or is it going to be determined by turn-out (as in 2004)?

Voter turn-out is going to play a large role in the 2012 Presidential Election.  Currently, there is a large group of usually inactive voters, young voters in their late teens and twenties, that are unemployed, angry, and very likely to vote.  This group, often known as the Occupy Movement, is predicted to vote for Obama over Romney.  Elections generally are determined by the 45-75 year old age group.  Typically, young voters make up less than 25% of the vote (http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/socdemo/voting/publications/p20/2010/tables.html).

However, because young voters are more unemployed and angry than in the past, they will turn out in higher numbers.  Also, the economy is hitting populations that will typically vote for a Democratic candidate while older, more affluent populations are not as affected by the economy.
How likely are electoral irregularities to figure in the outcome, such as we saw in Florida (2000) or Ohio (2004)?

Electoral irregularities are fairly uncommon and only become an item of importance if the race is very close.  The 2012 Presidential Election is unlikely to be very close.  Also, after the irregularities of previous elections, many states have adopted electronic voting.  “25% of voters” will be using electronic devices to vote (http://verifiedvoting.org/).

But, it is impossible to predict if a race will be close and because paper ballots are still in use, we could still see irregularities occur.