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The Place of Opinion Polls in US 2012 Election, Essay Example

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Words: 350

Essay

Opinion polls have been used overtime to predict results of events in various fields including political. Pollsters have been able to predict the results of US presidential election at the time with success and at times unsuccessfully in the past. Opinion polls conducted before elections have high chances of predicting the possible outcome because it is able to obtain what the electorate thinks about parties and candidates. Through it, approval ratings may be obtained, which measure American performance reviews on a candidate. It also gives a hint on critical issues touching on political influences such as the country’s economic performance during the term of a candidate and the political weight of opponents.

Approval ratings are useful in determining US political landscape but are liable to errors. Through it, one knows a candidate’s or party’s performance in individual states and at the same time determines comfortable states and those, which is unpopular. A comparison of the candidature of various candidates also helps predict the possible winner. This comparison is done about candidate’s performance or his viewpoint on issues such as foreign policy and social security among others. These platforms influence the pattern, which Americans will vote and is carried in their opinion polls.

Pollsters can correctly US 2012 presidential election if it is done in a timely period, probably a year before elections. It is at this period that variables will have been assessed with no substantial changes expected before election. Evaluation of economy in economic activities under the governance of a leader or a party would have been conducted and will significantly influence the voting event. The performance of the former ruling party’s candidate and the ideology of the candidates would have been assessed by the voters and the results depicted in the opinion polls. The ratings themselves will also indicate the likely president elect. Rating below 40s a year before the election will portray a candidate as an underdog with no likelihood of success, but superior ratings and consistency suggest the likelihood of success. It is thus apparent that polls can rightly predict the possible winner of the US 2012 election.

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