The Real Future of Facebook, Essay Example

 “The Rumors of Its Death Are Greatly Exaggerated”

Introduction

“One of the more popular headlines about Facebook is the idea that it is finally dying, its users drifting away to Twitter, Instagram, Whatsapp or Snapchat” (Edwards).  This statement made at the end of 2013 would surely have been considered incomprehensible only a year or two earlier.  In its 10-year life, Facebook has assumed as monolithic a presence as may any Internet-based platform, its name itself becoming as ingrained in the language as “Google.”  Even as forecasters were predicting a likely demise, there remains the impressive reality of Facebook’s having over 740 million users daily.  Nonetheless, stalled growth trends in the West prompt talk of its fading away, and/or falling victim to new media sites with greater appeal to the young.  All of this is valid from a traditional business perspective, but it fails to account for the novelty of this new commerce itself.  Facebook may indeed lose users to new platforms, but it is equally probable that its presence as a forerunner of social media will assure it of continued life and success, simply because, in this world of shifting media, it takes on the quality of trusted site all the more.

Causes for Fears

Meteoric rises in any type of business tend to generate skepticism.  The business that appears suddenly and achieves outstanding success, at least historically, is the business just as likely to disappear as quickly.  There is what may be called the “trend” factor, in that which seizes the public imagination so instantly is typically fated to be replaced by the next fascination.  Then, there is no discounting the stunningly rapid success of Facebook.  Launched in 2004 from a Harvard dormitory, the site could claim over a million subscribers before the end of its first year, and the expansion has been exponential since (Lee 14).  In very little time, Facebook moved from being a social site aimed at college-aged people to eclipse MySpace as the most visited such arena.  Unfortunately, an issue with spectacular growth is that it must at some point lessen; potential customers may number in the billions, but the number is still limited, and this has recently been brought home to the Facebook corporation.  Since 2012, Facebook user growth in the United States has essentially stopped, while new users are signing in from Asia and Africa at impressive rates (Edwards).  These tides of activity are employed to illustrate that Facebook’s days as the premier social network or numbered; after all, if Americans have lost interest, the end cannot be far behind.

Added to these issues is the controversy surrounding Facebook’s advertising and promotional strategies.  The site is a free service so, in plain terms, the only way to generate profit from it is to bring in advertisers.  Facebook has not only done this on a massive scale, it has toyed with subscribers’ privacy rights, at least in the view of many outraged users who perceive themselves targeted by businesses which obtain personal information from their Facebook profiles.  For example: “The social network has enabled customers to send advertisements, via Facebook, directly to customers on existing mailing lists” (Rushton).  This is seen as invasive by many, and likely accounts at least partially for a drop-off in the site’s popularity.  At the same time, and somewhat ironically, this type of strategy is crucial in keeping the company alive as competition grows more intense.  Both Twitter and Facebook are perpetually locked in a struggle to secure advertisers who are slowly but steadily comprehending that social media is the new “billboard.” (Rushton). In a very real sense, and reflecting the noted dilemma of the meteoric rise, Facebook essentially threatened its own survival by being so enormously successful, and thus generating new entries in the social media markets.  All of these considerations then go to significant reasons for Facebook to look to its future and understand how precarious that future may be.

A New Model

Also seemingly going to the likelihood of Facebook’s demise is the research consistently affirming a negative aspect to all such social media.  Even as the sites are embraced and avidly used, levels of significant dissatisfaction become evident.  Not entirely unexpectedly, it has been widely held that Internet arenas such as Facebook actually serve to promote loneliness and senses of isolation.  The technology allows for unprecedented levels of communication, but it is of a distinctly topical, if not superficial, kind (McChesney  11).  People engage but they do not experience the degrees of gratification anticipated from social intercourse because, simply, it is now so predominantly virtual.  It is then reasonable to argue that this recent technology, initially so attractive, will lose its appeal and Facebook, along with its competitors, will suffer losses so severe, survival is at risk.

Such a view, however, ignores more than one critical reality.  To begin with, if people are increasingly disenchanted with social media sites in terms of their providing social satisfaction, the fact remains that hundreds of millions still engage in them, and many on a daily basis.  If Facebook is no longer attracting new users at previous rates, it nonetheless boasts an impressive subscriber figure of over 800 million.  Then, the noted element of American interest as waning and rises in Eastern engagement does not of itself indicate anything beyond a commercial trajectory.  That is to say, it is not uncommon that services and products initially presented by the more industrialized West become sought after later, and by foreign nations in various stages of development.  In plain terms, McDonald’s was long a corporate giant in the U.S. before franchises opened overseas.  Consequently, that Facebook now commands Eastern markets in no way serves as an indication for future failure, just as hundreds of millions of Americans turn to their Facebook pages daily.

Then, even the disputes regarding advertising on Facebook go to the need to perceive this business in a more expansive way.  To apply traditional business models to Facebook is to overlook its novelty, and how it has gone to establishing social dimensions changing the nature of social perception.  In a word, Facebook is removed from standard patterns of success and failure because social media has altered thinking regarding the natures of services, and this includes how advertising itself is perceived.  If in the past, for example, American consumers relied on parameters separating the commercial from the product, the Internet itself has shifted those parameters.  It must be remembered that the primary objections to Facebook’s advertising strategies are not based on the content, but on the allowing of access to personal information.  This suggests that subscribers today now accept promotions as something of a given in virtually all Internet venues.  Facebook is then not likely to suffer losses because of antipathy to advertising because, in the new business model enabled by the Internet, advertising has become synonymous with interaction on all levels.

As for the next generation’s turning to new media sites: this is probable.  Young people tend to seek the new, or depart from what has been adopted by the generation before them.  At the same time, this very process translates to a stability for Facebook.  It may become the “old man” of social media but, as users age, it is then probable that it will be all the more relied upon as a trusted venue.  Zuckerberg himself makes a relevant comment regarding perceptions of Facebook’s future viability.  Electricity was likely discussed hotly as the new, “cool” thing when it emerged, but its no longer being a topic of fascination does not equate to fewer people actually using it (Vanhemert).  As electricity was assured of a long life due to the basic convenience it provides, so too is Facebook likely to endure because it is similarly known and trusted.

Conclusion

To ignore the risks to Facebook is irrational; it exists within a highly competitive market it itself helped to create, and there are the very real dangers of that competition, objections to privacy intrusions, and the inevitable tendency for the young to seek something different.  At the same time, the reality that Facebook has essentially presented a new business model, and one in which users are accustomed to the presence of advertising, goes to its probable longevity.  It is in plain terms the “king” of social media, so it will then become more valued as foundational and trusted by its own, aging subscriber base.   Facebook may lose users to new platforms, but it is more likely that its presence as a forerunner of social media will assure it of continued life and success, simply because, in this world of shifting media, it takes on the quality of trusted site all the more.

Works Cited

Edwards, J. “America Is Basically Irrelevant To The Future Of Facebook.” Business Insider. 31 Dec. 2013. Web. <http://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-us-user-base-2013-12>

Lee, N.  Facebook Nation: Total Information Awareness. New York: Springer, 2012.  Print.

McChesney, R. W.  Digital Disconnect: How Capitalism is Turning the Internet against Democracy. New York: The New Press, 2013.  Print.

Rushton, K.  “What’s the future for Facebook as it turns 10?”  The Telegraph. 3 Feb. 2014. Web. <http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/facebook/10612019/Whats-the-future-for-Facebook-as-it-turns-10.html>

Vanhermert, K.  “With Its New App Paper, Can Facebook Overcome the Burden of Being Facebook?” Wired.  3 Feb. 2014.  Web. <http://www.wired.com/design/2014/02/inside-look-at-the-creation-of-facebook-paper/>