Analyzing Inductive Arguments, Essay Example

In completing this assignment two opinion polls have been chosen. The first poll was conducted under the auspices of the New York Times and CBS news and polls the public’s reaction to how President Obama is performing as President (The New York Times/ CBS News, 2012). The second poll used was conducted under the name of Fox News but the polling work was actually conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw and Company Research (Fox News, 2012).

Both polls were quite extensive in both the number of questions asked and the topics that were covered. The nature of the questions of the question in both polls covered the same general areas of concern but the questions in the New York Times’ poll were much narrower in scope and addressed specific topic areas. The questions in the Fox poll tended to be more general in nature and subject to a greater level of extrapolation. Interestingly, the first question in both polls was essentially the same: “Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?” yet, there is a 5% difference in the results with the New York Times’ poll resulting in a 50% approval rating for the President while the Fox poll resulted in only a 45% approval.

The sample size for the Fox poll was 906 registered voters chosen nationally and interviewed by live telephone interviews. The New York Times poll had a sample size of 1,197 voters but was not a totally random choice of respondents but was, instead, divided by party affiliation. Slightly more democrats (684-647) participated in the poll which was always conducted nationally. The sample size used by both polls can be considered valid but ideally a poll of this nature would ordinarily use a large sample. Statistically, the larger the sample size the more accurate the results. As a result, both polls should be utilized with this in mind.

The sample size for both polls was done on a national basis. The Fox poll had no further qualification while the New York Times poll split the poll sample into nearly equal amounts of Democrats and Republicans. The validity of the Fox poll must be questioned in that there are no further qualifying standards to differentiate the results. Using landlines to choose the participants for example means that the polling was likely done of an older demographic in that statistics have demonstrated that younger potential voters have virtually abandoned the use of land lines. This means that the poll likely failed to register any results from individuals less than forty years of age. Additionally, because there is no attempt at differentiating between voters and non-voters and Democrats and Republicans, the Fox poll is more determinative of general views toward the President as opposed to views held by potential voters.

The New York Times methodology was based on telephone interviews with the 1197 people chosen at random. The numbers chosen were randomly chosen land lines and random dialing of cell phone numbers. This method avoids the distorted results of using only landlines. The interviews were conducted in either English or Spanish and only one adult at each number was surveyed. The numbers chosen were spread throughout different regions of the country in order to avoid regional voting tendencies.

The Fox poll was also based on telephone interviews but did not attempt to randomly select cell phone numbers as well. Instead the poll relied upon the exclusive use of land lines. The problems with this approach have already been addressed. In all other regards the polling methods were the same.

The most obvious bias included in both polls is the way that the responses were received. Because the sampling was done by telephone, both polls have eliminated those who are not willing to provide answers by telephone. This fact results in biased sample because all individuals in the population were not likely to be selected. The results of both polls, therefore, have the potential to be erroneous. As this form of polling is popularly used and been demonstrated to be consistently accurate in the past this sampling bias likely has not effect on the results.

The target population in the New York Times poll was all potential voters in the United States. The New York Times did not include anyone who was not clearly identified as either a Republican or Democrat. The poll excluded anyone identified as an Independent or a non-voter. The Fox poll target population was all individuals regardless of whether they were voters or not or whether they had any political party affiliation. In both polls, only those of voting age, however, were included.

Both polls tend to rate relatively high on a value scale of 1-10. Depending on the purpose for which the results are to be used one poll would be more valid than the other with the New York Times poll having greater validity with those wanting to assess how President Obama is doing among potential voters while the Fox poll is better used as a gauge of President Obama’s overall popularity among the general population. Like all samplings of this type there are inherent problems that make it impossible to describe either poll has being deserving of a perfect ten but both should be considered strong polls and deserving of a 8 or 9.

Works Cited

Fox News. (2012). Fox News Poll. New York: Fox News .

The New York Times/ CBS News. (2012). The New York Times/ CBS News Poll. New York: New York Times.