Inductive Argument, Essay Example

Analysis of inductive argument

This is a method of reasoning called induction. This method generally entails the use of inference method, collective principals, and law about a particular issue as well as argument. Moreover, in the case of opinion poll, it is the representation of a scientific research to rate the views of a given group. The group concerns are the union trade members, or those who participate in voting. In the American context, there are two main political parties namely the Democratic Party and the Republican Party (Moore, 2012, p.112).

For a particular organization to take a poll survey, it is important for the organization to formulate the questionnaire that will act as a guideline for the research. These usually enhance the accuracy of the research. Some of the questions that should feature include; is Election Day open on polling? Are the options available for the voter to choose? What parties can one vote? Who is the most popular presidential candidate?

The sample size that was used during the research constituted of 1054 people. The sampled individuals were mainly adults drawn from all parts of the nation. It is pertinent to note that this sample size was large enough to avoid hastiness despite having exceeded the recommend number, which is always 1000. This is a considerable number in that with the occurrence of the error notwithstanding, the target will be met Govier, 2009, p130). It is imperative that the sample brings into existence the landline and cell phones that came into operation. This work successfully came up by the use of random selection using a computer. This random selection came out of almost 69000 exchanges of residents across the country to ensure all regions of the country are equally represented. The use of a computer alleviated biasness whilst accounting for correct proportionality. It is pertinent to note that after each random exchange, the digits add up to make a full number of a telephone, therefore, enhancing accessibility to the unlisted and listed numbers. This enabled the cell phone random dial numbers reach the respondents. It is noteworthy that those who admit supporting the democrats are over sampled in the same poll. The sample came into another stage, where the Democratic Party literally compared to republican and other parties, thus bringing about the difference.

Biasing is another factor that can accrue whenever there is an election. Thus, United States is not exception since Obama’s success did encounter biasing. Bias result mostly in the media since it is the widest form of communication. In most cases, media frequently favors the one who is on powerful and president. Obamas’ team has the ability to put its pressure on the media. This is evident to the BBC news on recent period during the countries’ opinion poll voting. News did rotate around the good performance of the president. In 2011, September, more than 15000 voters did cast their opinion poll, and surprisingly 34% to 36% came about in favor of the Republican Party. Nevertheless, against much expectation, Washington Post/ABC did show that the data analysis came in favor of Obama by 5% surge.

The target population is always adults who has 18 years of age and who has actually had a birthday recently. In the household, this is the method pollster uses to select voters. Every adult individual has an opportunity to take participation in voting. There are two types of Gallup poll; these include traditionally stand-alone poll, and a night’s interview (Heit & Feeney, 2007). The Gallup poll is usually 1000 adults with an error margin of +or -4 points in percentage. However, the daily tracking plans has open Gallup poll analyst to use a considerable amount of groups. Fortunately, accuracy of the estimation does derive from a larger sample size that is marginal.

On scale representation, the rating is labeled 1 to 10 such that 1 denotes the weakest while 10 is the strongest. Polls can be rated as 5 because polls are neither weak nor strong. Poll depends with the nature of persons and the authority that the president, or the power holder posses unlike the civilians. If the government holds powerful opposition, the poll will be rated 5 (Chakraborti, 2006 p242). However, if atoll, opposition is weak, then biasing and other unfair factors will penetrate through and so the stability of the country will be poor and weak almost to one.

In conclusion, strong poll represents the voice of the citizens in a given country to facilitate change. In addition, if fairness undergoes consideration, people do vote and stand by their rights. If one passes the poll, he/she has respect of the natives of the country. Strong poll surpasses the set level by almost 10% and so this shows that when people speaks, so has spoken. Nevertheless, a weak poll is weak since the majority of its vote comes from a less number or portion of the entire country. This is a clear indication that where poll do not have fans or its not favorite party to peoples’ decision on getting change, or persuasive power of the competing party (Heit, 2007, 321). Weak poll entails how the party is as well weak, and a strong poll, entails how the party in favor is strong. Therefore, strong is always strong and weak is always weak.

References

Chakraborti, C. (2006). Logic: Informal, Symbolic and Inductive. PHI Learning Pvt.

Govier, T. (2009). A Practical Study of Argument. New Yok, NY: Cengage Learning.

Heit, E., & Feeney, A. (2007). Inductive Reasoning: Experimental, Developmental, and Computational Approaches. Cambridge University Press.

Moore, K. (2012). Developing Critical Thinking. Armstedam: Kendall/Hunt.