How Our Environment Will Become in the Future? Essay Example

Introduction

Climate change is a global issue and as such has an impact upon all nations on the planet. Each nation has a specific responsibility to reduce carbon emissions and play an active part in the prevention of global warming. Climate Change will result in higher temperatures and this means increased Ultra Violet Radiation (UV-B) content. This will have a direct result in the degradation of plastics and woods that are subject to increased UV levels. This climate is essentially the weather pattern for a specific area.

The concept of climate change refers to variations in the average state of the climate over time. The problem relative to climate change is the result of the concentration of greenhouse gases i.e. CO2 CO4 N20 and CFC’s. These trap infra-red radiation inside the Earth’s atmosphere and create an anomaly that has been termed ‘the greenhouse effect’. This is a natural phenomenon within the normal bounds of nature. Historically nature tends to balance these conditions but mankind has disturbed this fragile balance by burning fossil fuels, deforestation and use of industrial processes that create greenhouse gases.

This imbalance gives ride to increased infra-red radiation, changes in the air temperature, variation to precipitation patterns, changing the sea levels and melting of glaciers. The long term ramifications of climate change have yet to be measured or determined but are seeing marked changes to the expected ‘norms’ of our climate patterns today may result in the need for deployment of alternate more expensive durable materials.

Developed Industrialised Economies

This position is best summed up from in December 2009 at the World Climate Change Summit in Copenhagen, Denmark the Government of Saudi Arabia was asked to rethink its position on climate change . The developing countries are concerned that the intransigence of the Saudi Government is threatening the survival of the developing nations. The Saudi Government tends to agree in principle on the implications of climate change but takes little affirmative action towards development of a strategy that will contribute towards reduction of CO2 emissions in that country. They constantly refer to the USA and China as being the dominant world polluters and cause of impacting climate change. It is these two countries that should be leading by example in the quest for change.

The argument at Copenhagen is that it is the responsibility of all nations to reduce CO2 emissions and every nation must do its part including Saudi Arabia. After all the goal is the preservation of the planet and if we destroy our environment there will be no need for oil production in the future. Regrettably the very essence of the argument has been largely ignored by the main protagonists.

Developing Countries

Saudi Arabia produces more emissions than the combined output of the Middle East and North Africa and as such makes it one of the world’s major contributors to global warming and climate change. The Energy sectors and Electricity/Heat production account for 60% of the output.

One of the most common problems that climate change will propose for the Middle East is that of a shortage of water. Certain countries like Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria have reliable supplies of surface water but the rest face the increasing prospect of desertification and droughts. The demand for water has increased throughout the Middle East and this will result in future severe water shortages. This in turn will severely impact agricultural production in the region and how future irrigation systems needs will be met. Research has suggested that climate change will have both positive and negative impacts; an example of positive impact might be the decline in the amount of frosts.

Economies in Transition

This considers countries like India and China which are considered as emerging industrial economies. These countries are amongst the biggest contributors of carbon emissions via coal fuelled power stations, industrial pollutants and increased production of automobiles. The Table to the right illustrates the largest emitter’s or producers of CO2 emissions. The USA and China being the largest contributors. In context during 2003 Saudi Arabia was contributing less than 10% of the output produced by the USA.

One of the global concerns of climate change relates to the potential of health challenges that might result from such diseases like Malaria moving into more densely populated areas like that of the Mediterranean Countries and the Middle East. The migration of these parasites may result in them becoming more resistant to existing drugs. Such changes have the potential of putting large populations at risk. The UNDP states that climate change represents an unprecedented threat to all of the nations on our planet and that remedial action is required now and success will only be accomplished by joint nation strategies with international collaboration by all parties concerned.

China and India

China is considered to have the world’s largest carbon footprint. In Copenhagen they stated that they are committed to decisive action “ China stated that it would attempt to reduce carbon emissions by up to 45% by 2020. Despite this being a step in the right direction, by the Chinese Government, the US and Europe felt that the cuts did not go far enough. The US and Europe both voiced concerns that the reductions were not deep enough and that it would need to be a minimum of 50%.

India stated that it would attempt to make reductions by up to 24% in a similar timeframe. Commentators stated that both China and India were at least taking positive moves in the right direction and that Europe needs to improve its overall performance levels in order to make a valid contribution to global efforts.

One of the main issues with carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is that it can take up to 100 years in order to disperse. Hence if we stopped CO2 emissions today we could not determine the impact for many decades to come. The European Commission (EU) hopes that by reducing emissions, on average, by -30% by 2020 it will provide a 50/50 chance of reducing global temperatures by 2 degrees C. It is not too late to take action to prevent global warming and climate change but the reality is that we are now into damage control or damage limitation and our climate will be very different in just 20 years from now.

Climate Change and Regional Biodiversity

The USA Great Basin Area|

Scientists are already examining the Great Basin Mountain Range in the USA as one potential area where climate change may result in a change in regional biodiversity. This area provides the main interior drainage from the Rocky Mountains and the Sierra Nevada. The ranges consist of boreal vegetation, mountain streams and large pine and juniper Forests. This in turn provides a home to a large number of boreal species and animal wildlife. Scientists are able to predict species loss as a result of climate change but not accurately project the number of species extinctions that may result. Scientist predict extinctions in three animal groups across the mountain ranges and the average loss of mammal species is projected at 44%, with 33% loss of vagile butterflies and a substantial loss of plant species, particularly the newer stocks planted in regional parks.

Climate Change in Norway|

One laboratory for climate change has been that of Norway. Here it is possible to examine the impact on the change in precipitation rates. As melting will create more water in the systems they will become more prone to flooding. Norway is already getting warmer and the winters are not as long. The warmer waters may result in many species of fish being killed off and rising waters from the melting arctic ice caps may affect the offshore oil industry. Another aspect is that warmer climates may well see mosquitoes expanding their Territory from Africa into Europe and bringing malaria with them.

Turtles and Global Climate change |

Turtles have been on the planet for an estimated 200 million years and as such, they have proved to be natural survivors. They have survived numerous extinction level events including the passing of the dinosaurs and ice ages. However, mankind’s intervention in the creation of climate change may well pose them a more dangerous challenge. Of the 270 species of Turtles in the world, it is estimated that over 50% are in peril or endangered. It is the threat to their incubation temperatures and loss of habitat that is beginning to threaten their very long-term survival.

Climate Change and biological rates of evolution |

In December 2010, delegates of the United Nations (UN) held a summit to discuss recent developments of the effect of climate change around the world. Scientists stated that they expect the changes to hasten the extinction levels covering many different biological species around the globe. The evolutionary biologists were basing their initial research findings by looking at traits associated with birth, weight and age of reproduction. Further an examination into the expression of gene traits that may become modified by the effect of climate change. Within wild plant and animal populations, it was considered that there are two main factors signifying evolutionary change i.e. the strength of natural selection and the genetic variation that is acted upon.

It is the rising of temperatures that has a direct correlation to the way the trait of selection acts upon species and the genes that control it. Hence, if a rise in temperatures should both strengthen selection and increase the genetic variance, then this should cause acceleration in the evolutionary process. In order to have an improved understanding of this, a research team carried out experiments in the Netherlands on a songbird called ‘The Great Tit’. They examined more than 3,800 breeding records over a 35-year period, along with average daily temperature changes.

The results indicated a strong correlation between that of selection and genetic variance. As such, changes in the environmental conditions exerted a strong influence on the breeding rates amongst the population of birds examined. Although the birds were seen to make some positive adjustments towards adaption, nevertheless there has been recorded a significant decline in the population of these birds over the last decade. This was also linked to the food chain and the early springs causing the caterpillars to emerge before the birds had completed their migration cycle from Africa. Hence the links to the lower end of the food chain.

Biological Symptoms of Warming|

There is now sufficient evidence to support the fact that the central northern hemisphere is indeed warming. Certain dendrochronological data has however suggested that there is some return to normal averages, but this would be expected owing to increased levels of precipitation in the warming event. The temperatures are indeed rising. We are already witnessing a response from the Alaskan White Spruce (picea glauca) which has extended the growing season in the higher latitudes. This may result in certain species replacing the tundra areas by pushing further north. This in turn results in loss of species habitats and further endangers wildlife species.

The Tropical rainforest are considered to be the most species rich place on Earth. Current studies indicate that climate change, particularly increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, are having a profound effect on the biodiversity of the rain forests.

It is now a scientific fact that climate change is happening at an unprecedented rate and this will have a profound effect on the multiple levels of biological organizations. Biologists have already identified a number of instances whereby there has been a rapid response to climate change e.g. mustard fields ( Brassica Rapa), and common cordgrass ( Spartina Anglica) used for the control of erosion. It is considered that in the longer term climate change will have a negative impact on both biological and eco systems.

Impact in the Middle East

The graphs to the right illustrate the CO2 emissions by source in Saudi Arabia. 64% of these are by that of liquid fuels. Saudi Arabia produces more emissions than the combined output of the Middle East and North Africa and as such makes it one of the world’s major contributors to global warming and climate change. The Energy sectors and Electricity/Heat production account for 60% of the output.

One of the most common problems that climate change will propose for the Middle East is that of a shortage of water. Certain countries like Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria have reliable supplies of surface water but the rest face the increasing prospect of desertification and droughts. The demand for water has increased throughout the Middle East and this will result in future severe water shortages. This in turn will severely impact agricultural production in the region and how future irrigation systems needs will be met. Research has suggested that climate change will have both positive and negative impacts; an example of positive impact might be the decline in the amount of frosts.

Problems and Issues in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia has large underground supplies of water but these are in an increased demand situation. There was an increase of 100% of wells being bored in the period between 1982-90. This supply is now being monitored for the impacts of climate change. To assist this the country has been divided into 6 different geographical areas of meteorological study.

In the Noorrdjwijk conference in 1989 Saudi Arabia described global warming as a life or death situation for certain areas of the world and stated in no uncertain terms that CO2 emissions were the main culprit and as such there is a need for the world to reduce these emissions. Despite this they remained non-committal to establishing appropriate targets and timescales. In Saudi Arabia 60% of the population live along the coastal areas, particularly that of the Red Sea Coast. This has become the focal point for construction and subsequently has seen an increase in the level of seaborne pollution taking place. We are now faced with a situation where sewage, toxic materials and other pollutants are seriously damaging the coral reefs. Climate change may well accelerate this process resulting in increased sea levels and the raising of sea temperatures ultimately destroying the coral reefs. This in turn would then result in increased sedimentation of enclosed seas.

The bulk of the Arabian Peninsula is situated in a very arid part of the world. This area shows precipitation of less than 100mm per annum with 300-500mm in the highland regions. This equally results in a great variation between air temperatures 21.9 to 43.6 the bulk of the Arabian Peninsula is situated in a very arid part of the world. This area shows precipitation of less than 100mm per annum with 300-500 mm in the highland regions. This equally results in a great variation between air temperatures 21.9 to 43.6 o C in the coastal areas (May to August) and 11.9 to 24.5oC in the winter months (Dec to Feb). With a projected global increase in our temperatures 1.5 to 4.5oC in the next 50 years; this will result in increased desertification and water shortages.

The UNDP states that climate change represents an unprecedented threat to all of the nations on our planet and that remedial action is required now and success will only be accomplished by joint nation strategies with international collaboration by all parties concerned. The impact of CO2 emissions for Saudi Arabia can broadly be placed into the following classifications:

• Water Shortages – The entire region may be subject to severe water shortages and drought like conditions with rising temperatures.
• Desertification – An extension in the amount of arid land due to increasing of temperatures and lack of rainfall. This may reduce the amount of well bore holes available and create vast tracts of land unsuitable for human dwelling. This again is linked to rising temperatures and water shortages created
• Agriculture – Even slight changes can potentially upset the balance here. Whilst frosts may disappear rising temperatures will create the need for more irrigation but the water supply will not be available .
• Coral Reefs – The sea quality and disappearance of fish in the Red sea owing to rising ocean levels and changes in sea temperatures. Perhaps less of a human impact but more of an ecological disaster
• Animal Life – Historically Saudi Arabia was a rich forested country similar to that of Madagascar. Today it has become a vast region of arid desert land. This will dictate what sort of animal species can live in this land and the lack of water will be a distinctive factor here.

Long Term implications

The long term implications do not bode well for Saudi Arabia unless it can balance the needs of its industrial production with the future safeguard of its country. In some regards this is a question of greed. The Petroleum Industry in Saudi Arabia has been working towards initiatives that reduce CO2 emissions and they have had some success and in particular with Natural Gas Flaring .

Tackling Climate Change

Saudi Arabia needs to consider how clean energy might replace the non-renewable petrochemical industry in the future. One concept might be in the harvesting of solar energy and exporting the electricity to its neighbours. There will need to be a comprehensive strategy in order to address this. In the interim the world demand for consumption of oil is distracting the country from taking real affirmative action against the future consequences of climate change. The best approach would be that of a collaborative approach amongst the Arab nations that developed a comprehensive strategy for the Middle East. This may however prove difficult given the level of distrust between Arab nations.

Conclusions

Research demonstrates that the global long term impact of climate change may have an irreversible adverse impact to our environment and way of life. There is an urgent need for the main industrialised nations of the world to reduce C02 emissions now. Scientists are still unable to predict the long term consequences of our current actions but they are making very pessimistic options for both the oceans, weather and our environmental conditions. There is an urgent need to move away from carbon based fuels to cleaner energy sources.