The World Against ISIS, Essay Example

The recent actions of ISIS demonstrated that its objectives and strategy of their performance are far from being conventional or limited by a single set of means. Organisation’s activity is characterised by diversification of sources of income, target groups for recruitment and even final targets, means of propaganda and degrees of violence and terror used. In this regard, the organisation uses diversity since it makes its actions less predictable, and global capacities of its destruction less effective, since no one can target elicit human trade, terrorist face-to-face recruitment and training together with ordinary illegal smuggling in the Middle East. Since ISIS places diversity of means as a core of its activities, it is not surprising that it would concentrate on diversification of the sources of intelligence as well. The aim of this paper is to conduct a red cell analysis of the ISIS intelligence collection framework.

The primary reason ISIS would conduct terrorist and criminal activities of various scales and regional proximities is to the necessity to preserve unpredictability of their actions and also to preserve survivability of their organisation, in case one of the sources of finances or branches of supply is shut down by the US government and its allies (Stern and Berger 2015, 56). For the same purposes, the organisation would have to obtain intelligence from diverse sources both official and from the ground.  In this regard, the focal point of ISIS data and Intel collection would be human dimension since it is the weakest element in any system of security. ISIS would concentrate on human intelligence aspect because people can be easily manipulated by their families and personal interests (Sackelmore 2014, 65).

In other words, in its intelligence collection, ISIS can overrule advanced technological development by placing pressure on the most vulnerable element of security – a human factor, which always remains the same (Stern and Berger 2015, 51). In terms of the human dimension of intelligence, it would follows the same pattern of HUMANINTEL as it is done by CIA, meaning the use of espionage, NGOs, collecting data from travellers and ordinary citizens, the use of strategic and tactical reconnaissance (Stern and Berger 2015, 53). The primary problem for the US Intelligence Community is that ISIS uses their own methods of data collection and intelligence cycle, but it does not have any legal or ethical limitations regarding intelligence collection and further application for the coercion purposes like the official US Agencies. For instance, intelligence collected on the local civilians is effectively used for psychological operations:

“ISIS conducts psychological operations and exercises nearly complete control over

the flow of information, enabling it to broadcast messages of dominance. This acts as

a force multiplier for ISIS, because the local population may believe ISIS has more

control than it actually does. As part of its information dominance, ISIS collects

intelligence on civilians under its control by registering the names and ID number of

local residents” (Caris 2015).

This passage demonstrates that ISIS concentrates on collecting intelligence and controlling individuals as further sources of a more global intelligence collection and projection of their power. Having intelligence of the right people in the right positions across the globe, ISIS can collect intelligence of other types that can be further used for the planning of terrorist activities. For instance, by controlling human factor and using the collected intelligence on people, it can receive such strategically importance types of intelligence as geospatial intelligence, signals intelligence, technical intelligence, financial intelligence and, of course, cyber or digital intelligence (Sackelmore 2014, 76). Although certain types of intelligence can be obtained through conventional means of hacking intelligence systems, the breach of security would be noticed and data could be changed, while through the human factor the accuracy and timeliness is guaranteed since it is conducted with the use of coercion.

Another essential feature of ISIS intelligence collection in the human dimension is the use of open access sources like internet, particularly social networks. In this regard, publically available intelligence about one’s preferences and background provide ISIS with potential recruits and give an opportunity to choose the most suitable tactics for recruiting a particular category of suitable candidates. In this regard, ISIS might be using the same search programs as CIA does when it is looking for radically or potentially unsuccessful youth likely to be affected by terrorist propaganda (Sackelmore 2014, 89).  Thus, through certain profile-oriented open access search programs, ISIS can easily spot vulnerable individuals that can become future recruits. The aforementioned discourse demonstrates that by using human intelligence oriented data collection programs, ISIS can further receive intelligence of any other type (Stern and Berger 2015, 47).

In terms of overruling ISIS intelligence collection diversified and human-oriented approach, the best counterparts within US intelligence community would be CIA and FBI. The main rationale for choosing CIA is because, ISIS is using some of its traditional human intelligence collection techniques based on local espionage, geographical and cultural awareness on operational and tactical levels (Sackelmore 2014, 87). Unlike any other defence agency, it has the best level of historical and cultural awareness about community development in various locations of the world including the areas under the influence of ISIS.

Another reason for choosing CIA is because it obtains a systematic intelligence from all four intelligence dimensions and would be able to get a multifaceted picture of ISIS networking, intelligence methods and actions (Stern and Berger 2015, 45). On the other hand, the assistance of FBI is desired because it would make CIA’s conventional data analysis strengthened by FBI’s orientation and modernised means of terrorist profiling and cutting-edge cyber space intelligence collection.

In terms of intelligence analysis strategy, the most suitable for the case of ISIS would be all-source information oriented towards counterintelligence. In this regard, the main rationale is that obtained data needs to analysed in the framework aimed at identification, deceit, exploitation and protection “against espionage, other intelligence activities, sabotage, or assassinations conducted for or on behalf of foreign powers, organizations or persons or their agents, or international terrorist organizations or activities” (JP 1-02 2015,  53). Furthermore, due to the diversification of sources of intelligence collection and level of its obtained by ISIS, the obtained intelligence needs to be analysed in the context of this diversity. The intelligence analysis should be also oriented towards the detection of the counterintelligence insider threat, since the use of human factor to obtain high-level intelligence is one of the features of ISIS intelligence approach. By counterintelligence insider threat is meant:

“a person who uses their authority access to Department of Defense facilities,

systems, equipment, information or infrastructure to damage, disrupt operations,

commit espionage on behalf of a foreign intelligence entity or support international

terrorist organization” (JP 1-02 2015, 54).

Overall, the ISIS approach to intelligence collection demonstrates to be multi-dimensional yet oriented on the primary weakness in the contemporary information age world – the human factor. In this regard, the use of traditional CIA espionage strategies together with the advantage of the local presence require a systematic reply for the US Intelligence Community, particularly CIA and FBI in the framework of  counterintelligence of data collection and analysis.

References

Caris, C. “How Does ISIS Maintain Control of Large Urban Areas?” Institute for the Study of War, accessed 18 May 2015, http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Charlie_Briefing_ISIS.pdf.

Department of Defence Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms. Joint Publication 1-02  (JP 1-02). Washington: Department of Defence, 15 April 2015.

Sackelmore, J. The World Against ISIS. London: Conceptual King, 2014.

Stern, J. and Berger, J. ISIS: The State of Terror. London: Harper Collins, 2015.