Potential Regional Threat to Environment and Security, Research Proposal Example

The region of Eastern Africa as the continent in general was always characterized by instability and presence of conflicts on different levels of escalation. If traditional causes of war like territorial claims or liberation movements are more or less managed by international law, the reasons for the future instability and tensions in the region are of a new nature. The Nile River Basin is inhabited by 160 million people, and almost 300 million live in the ten riparian countries. Being the main source of water for almost half of Africa and energy asset for 10 riparian states, Nile became an apple of discord in the region due to the climate change, deterioration of environmental issues, population growth (which is expected to double by 2050), and extreme poverty in the region (M. El-Fadel et al. 2003).  The dominant control over the River, based on colonial time agreements, was in hands of Egypt and Sudan, all the rest 8 countries were trying to gain more control through the Nile Basin Initiative and negotiations concerning reconsideration of the old colonial treaties. The struggle between parties went to the deadlock already before 2011. Appearance of new riparian state, which would need additional sources for infrastructure development and independent policy building, would only deteriorate the situation. The central thesis of the offered research is to explore the impact of South Sudan’s independence will have on the Hydro politics and stability in the region, particularly in the framework of relations with North Sudan and Egypt, and how its political decisions on the topic might become a threat to the environment.

In the framework of the main thesis, few goals are to be achieved. First of all, it is essential to explore current water supply, environmental situation and the place of River Nile in the economy and political strategy of the South Sudan and possible political decisions which might be taken in negotiations with Egypt, and later with North Sudan; their impact on political and environmental situation in the region. Secondly, the main interests of the Nile Basin countries in South Sudan in the context of Hydro politics should be emphasized. Thirdly, possible strategic scenarios of cooperation or confrontation effecting regional stability and South Sudan’s integrity should be developed. Fourthly, the scope of environmental threat of South Sudan political decisions and consequences of possible further conflicts should be estimated and evaluated in the long-term perspective. Fifthly, the impact of regional instability and environmental threat on the international affairs and U.S. policy should be outlined. Finally, recommendations and suggestions for American policy conduct in the field should be made.

The main hypothesis and concepts of the research are the following ones. South Sudan is not only a threat for Egypt and North Sudan in the context of water consumption, but also as breaker of previous Egypt-Sudan agreements towards Hydro politics. South Sudan might become a competitor to North Sudan in Egypt Nile politics, which might cause new conflict or rather continue South Sudan war for independence. Being the forum for negotiations and sufficient use of water resources, the Nile Basin Initiative proved to be ineffective in the efficiency of resources use and turned into participant of World Bank dam projects. South Sudan trump card in negotiations with Egypt – Jonglei Canal project, which would increase the amount of water going to Nile, would also harmfully affect the ecosystem of the area. Building of the canal would have a negative impact on environment and livelihood of the Sudd territory particularly, on potable water, pastures, fisheries and pastoral communities and wildlife access to the water of the canal (M. El-Fadel et al. 2003). Prediction and evaluation of the threats to stability and environmental sustainability in the region are crucial for the world affairs both politically and economically. Recent turmoil in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya showed how vulnerable world economy is under the threat to oil supply stability and insecurity of future extraction. Regional conflict involving 10 countries might cause other world economic crises, which would particularly affect US as the embodiment of the world strength and economic might. Except economic and political consequences, human lives and environment of the region would be on the stake.

The importance of the offered project is in its interdisciplinary, integrated scope of exploration. The topic of regional stability and environmental security is not investigated only from political, military, economic or ecological perspectives; it is going to be explored through all this perspectives but in combination as a contribution to analysis of the regional Hydro politics in the new system of regional international relations created by the appearance of new independent state of South Sudan. Originality of the research is exactly in its systematic cut of all spheres contribution to the security and environmental sustainability of the region. The distinctive feature of the project is that theoretical concepts and hypothesis of the situation would not be separated from the practical, empirical observations and implementations. The thing is that my native land is Rwanda, and I’ve seen what genocide is. I am currently serving as a UN Peace Keeper in Sudan. So I have both a comprehension of the infield situation and visual confirmation of the South Sudanese people’s need for food and potable water, and vulnerability of the newborn country facing huge challenges in the regional political arena. I have seen for myself how crucial environment is for African countries’ security and their existence. War for water would not be less severe than for any other reason; it might be even worse than any conflict seen before.

The methodological basis of the offered research consists of data collection needed and data processing. On the first stage, I would collect materials concerning the current situation in South Sudan from infield observations, interviews with local citizens, governmental officials, people from UNDP, particularly NTEAP and UNEP. These materials would be mostly statistical data, official reports in the targeted field and possible solutions for the policy conduct. Political aspect of the exploration would be conducted on the basis of Nile Basin countries’ governmental statements, coverage of the issue in local medias and actual steps made toward cooperation in the target field. In order to achieve the last goals, additional materials and access to archive databases in Washington would be essential. So far  concerning the last two goals newspapers and academic journals database of British Council was of  the immense contribution for the research. Since the emphasis of this database was British foreign policy and world affairs, it would be substantial to have an opportunity of using databases of Wilson Center in order to have another perspective of the issue analysis and contribution to the U.S. foreign policy.

Concerning the techniques of data processing the most essential are interdisciplinary and systematic approaches. The issue of environmental and security threats to the region’s stability is analyzed in the framework of historical prerequisites for the current situation, geographical specifics of countries’ location and access Nile basin, economic infrastructure and financial capacity of the states, national political situation and international relations with South Sudan. The essence of a systematic approach is in exploring South Sudan and threats it causes as an element of the regional and global systems of international relations. Content and event analysis would be of the immense contribution in processing of official documents and empirical aspect of the issue.  The first one would explain texts’ motivations. Event analysis would show the actual political strategy of the interested parties.

At the moment, research is in its initial stage, meaning gathering of the information on the local level and its analysis together with processing of UN documents available in the field. Interviews with local authorities and tribes were conducted in order to find out different perceptions of the problem and solutions. Among the materials to be used, except for the UN official documents, monographs and research papers concerning environmental threat and climate change would be of immense importance (Asim I El Moghraby 1998). In order to comprehend historical conditionality of regional political situation works in the field of history, economy and humanitarian aid should be processed (Johnson 2003; Sidamhed 2005; Elnur 2009). Of immense importance would be works dedicated to leading countries’ foreign policy and strategy towards South Sudan and its influence on the balance of world affairs (Mansour Khalid 2003; Idris 2005). In this context, access to the databases in the analytical centers and governmental institutions of the Washington area would improve analysis U.S. foreign policy towards South Sudan.

The relevance of the offered research for the policymakers in Washington is, first of all, in the systematic and multidimensional scope of the investigation. The research will give an exhaustive description of the region’s political environment after South Sudan’s independence in the framework of security and environmental sustainability. It will assist Washington policymakers in assessing priorities of organizational help in the region, particularly the share which is annually given to Egypt. American policy of peacekeeping and regional development assistance would become more efficient if strategic water resource would be taken into account and seen as an asset of policy conduct. Hydro politics of East Africa can be also seen as a part of American policy of maintaining peace in the Middle East.   Evaluation and prediction of the possible conflicts escalation would help Washington to develop its policy scenarios before the actual war conduct and even prevent it; thus, the case of Libya would be prevented. This, in its turn, would contribute to the status of USA as a global power and guard of international order and security.

My contribution to the Centre would be in becoming a linkage between South Sudanese people and American policymakers and academic scholars. Thus, theoretical perception of the situation by officials in Washington would be substantiated by the empirical infield observations and interviewing real people that live without necessary items for survival. I hope to have an opportunity to make those African people closer to the American policymakers and take their interest and needs into account while making crucial decisions concerning their fates.

References

Asim I El Moghraby. 1998. State of the environment in Sudan. In UNEP EIA Training Resource Manual.   New York: UNEP.

Elnur, Ibrahim. 2009. Contested Sudan: The Political Economy of War and Reconstruction (Durham Modern Middle East and Islamic World Series). New York:  Routledge.

Johnson, J.H. 2003. The Root Causes of Sudan’s Civil Wars. Bloomington and Indianapolis: Indiana University Press.

Idris, Amir. 2005. Conflict and Politics of Identity in Sudan. London: Palgrave Macmillan.

Mansour Khalid. 2003. War and Peace in Sudan: A Tale of Two Countries. London: Kegan Paul International.

2003 El-Fadel, Y. El-Sayegh, K. El-Fadl, and D. Khorbotly. 2003. The Nile River Basin: A Case Study in Surface Water Conflict Resolution. J. Nat. Resour. Life Sci. Educ., vol. 32: 107-117.

Sidamhed, Salam. 2005. Sudan (Contemporary Middle East). New York: Routledge.